Notre Dame Drops Behind Key Rival in ESPN’s Latest FPI Update

Following the first full Saturday of college football, one Notre Dame rival soared up ESPN's computer ratings

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman during a Notre Dame football spring practice at Irish Athletic Center on Wednesday, March 26, 2025, in South Bend. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Week 1 of the 2025 college football season has largely come and gone, although a few games remain to be played. Notre Dame fans know the sixth-rated Irish will face off at No. 10 Miami on Sunday night, but a full slate of weekend games was plenty entertaining to watch without any real pressure.

One thing I look at each week is the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). I was curious on Sunday morning about how much Saturday's games impacted the preseason ratings, and it was safe to say, it was significant.

However, as Notre Dame waits for 7:30 p.m. ET to arrive and the season to kick off in Miami, one Fighting Irish rival was among the teams to soar up in the initial update.

USC Soars Past Notre Dame in ESPN FPI Update

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans running back King Miller (30) scores on a 75-yard touchdown run against the Missouri State Bears in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Notre Dame started the season ranked sixth in the FPI, but after being off Saturday, Sunday's update meant a slight drop for the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame now checks in eighth as of Sunday morning, falling two spots overnight.

One team that passed the Irish was USC, which soared from 14 to six following a blowout victory over Missouri State. The FPI actually gives USC a nearly 20% chance (19.7 to be exact) to win the Big Ten. It is also now listed as having a 55.8% chance to make the College Football Playoff, slightly better than the 52.3% chance Notre Dame currently sits with.

Notre Dame hosts USC on October 18 this season.

The other team to pass Notre Dame was Ole Miss, which a 63-7 victor over Georgia State. The Rebels jumped from six spots, from No. 10 to four.

ESPN Computer Model Projects Notre Dame at Miami:

Nov 11, 2017; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback DeeJay Dallas (13) dives into the end zone to score a touchdown against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. | Jasen Vinlove-Imagn Images

ESPN also has a computer model projecting what happens in each game, which they call the Matchup Predictor. Just hours before the Notre Dame at Miami clash, the Matchup Predictor gives Notre Dame a slightly better chance than Miami at pulling off the victory Sunday night.

ESPN Matchup Predictor: Notre Dame 54.9% chance of victory, Miami 45.1% chance of victory

Nick Shepkowski's Quick Thought:

Notre Dame getting by Miami Sunday night would mean its College Football Playoff odds soar as one of the most difficult games on the schedule is done, and a win is accomplished.

The most interesting part of the numbers to me is what the top of the ratings say. Despite losing at Ohio State and only scoring seven points in the process, Texas remains No. 1 while Ohio State moved up just one spot to No. 3.

Also interesting to me was that Texas A&M disposed of UTSA on Saturday, but saw its ranking fall from No. 9 to No. 14 as it had major issues stopping the run.