Notre Dame’s CFP Odds Fall Again — Is ESPN’s FPI Broken?

Notre Dame's College Football Playoff Odds Dropped Again Following its Off Week

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman during the Notre Dame Blue-Gold spring football game at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, April 12, 2025, in South Bend. | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Notre Dame enjoyed a week off as it gets ready for a top 20 matchup against Texas A&M on Saturday, but somebody thought it had a bad week. Well, not so much somebody, but something, as ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) dropped the Irish one spot to No. 10.

It also dropped Notre Dame's chances to win multiple individual games this season, and as a result, the Irish saw its playoff chances take a hit as well.

Below is the latest from ESPN FPI, which had more than a handful of odd listings as of its Sunday morning update.

September 13: Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M

Aug 31, 2024; College Station, Texas, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love (4) breaks free and runs the ball into the end zone for a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 71.2%, Texas A&M 28.8%

Previously: Notre Dame up 1.7% since last week

September 20: Notre Dame vs. Purdue

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 94.1%, Purdue 5,9%

Previously: Notre Dame down 2.5% from last week

September 27: Notre Dame at Arkansas

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 54.9%, Arkansas 45.1%

Previously: Notre Dame down 12.9% from last week

October 4: Notre Dame vs. Boise State

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 89.5%, Boise State 10.4%

Previously: Notre Dame down 2.5% from last week

October 11: Notre Dame vs. NC State

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 89.3%, North Carolina State 10.7%

Previously: Notre Dame down 1.3% from last week

October 18: Notre Dame vs. USC

Oct 14, 2023; South Bend, Indiana, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley and Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Marcus Freeman chat before the game at Notre Dame Stadium. | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 50.6%, USC 49.4%

Previously: Notre Dame down 5.7% from last week

November 1: Notre Dame at Boston College

Sep 16, 2017; Chestnut Hill, MA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Dexter Williams (2) scores a touchdown in front of Boston College Eagles cornerback Kamrin Moore (5) in the fourth quarter at Alumni Stadium. | Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 79.6%, Boston College 20.4%

Previously: Notre Dame down 0.4% from last week

November 8: Notre Dame vs. Navy

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 92.6%, Navy 7.4%

Previously: Notre Dame down 0.5% from last week

November 15: Notre Dame at Pittsburgh

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 74.6%, Pittsburgh 25.4%

Previously: Notre Dame down 5.8% from last week

November 22: Notre Dame vs. Syracuse

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 90.0%, Syracuse 10.0%

Previously: Notre Dame down 0.6% from last week

November 29: Notre Dame at Stanford

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 89.3%, Stanford 10.7%

Previously: Notre Dame up 0.9% since last week

ESPN FPI's Notre Dame Rest of Season Odds:

ESPN FPI has Notre Dame projected for the rest of Notre Dame's season.

Projected record: 8.8-32, down from 9.0-3.0

Win Out: 6.4%, down from 10.1%

6 or more wins: 99.6% (down 0.1%)

Make College Football Playoff: 24.7% (down 7.7%)

Make National Championship Game: 3.2% (down 2.3%)

Win National Championship: 1.3% (down 1.0%)

Nick Shepkowski's Lasting Thoughts:

Notre Dame gained a little bit in its chances to win the game Saturday against Texas A&M but the lovefest from FPI to USC continues. The Trojans beat up another tomato can this weekend, a 59-20 victory over Georgia Southern, and moved up to No. 5 in the FPI rankings.

Notre Dame has gone from having an over 70% chance of winning that game two weeks ago to essentially being a coin flip at home against the Trojans on October 18.

Notre Dame's sample in the formula isn't great, as the Miami game was disappointing, but the disrespect is rather absurd, as it appears there is nothing it likes more than simply blowing out awful teams, like Oregon did to Oklahoma State as the Ducks soared six spots to No. 1 this week.

Also, Alabama, fresh off a 77-0 victory over the always intimidating Louisiana-Monroe, moved up nine spots to No. 4 after getting crushed at Florida State a week ago - all while the Seminoles sit at No. 26 overall.

If you understand it then feel free to explain because this is making no sense early in the year.