ESPN Predicts Notre Dame's Odds of Beating TCU in Sweet 16 Showdown

Notre Dame is looking for its first trip to the Elite Eight since 2019

Notre Dame guards Hannah Hidalgo (3), Sonia Citron (11) and Cassandre Prosper (8) celebrate during the second round of the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament between Notre Dame and Michigan at Purcell Pavilion on Sunday, March 23, 2025, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Notre Dame women's basketball is trying to get to a place it hasn't been in six years. Sure, it has made the Sweet 16 in now four consecutive seasons, but has failed to get to the Elite Eight and Regional Final since the 2019 season when it went all the way to the national championship game.

Standing between Notre Dame and a trip to the Elite Eight this season is a team that already had the Fighting Irish's number once already this season.

TCU enters Saturday's contest at 33-3 overall and with a neutral site win over the Irish back in November. Can Notre Dame avenge that loss Saturday and head to the Elite Eight for the first time since March of 2019?

ESPN BPI Predicts Notre Dame vs. TCU in Sweet 16

Notre Dame head coach Niele Ivey coaches from the sidelines during the second round of the NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament between Notre Dame and Michigan at Purcell Pavilion on Sunday, March 23, 2025, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

What happened on the court back in November is one thing but ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) doesn't see it happening again. It's projections for the Sweet 16 are out and has Notre Dame being a considerable favorite over TCU on Saturday despite being the lower seeded team.

ESPN BPI Projection: Notre Dame 79.7% chance of winning, TCU 20.3%

Who will the winner of Notre Dame and TCU likely face?

ESPN BPI gives top-seeded Texas a 77.7% chance of beating Tennessee in the other Birmingham 3 Regional matchup. The two winners will meet on Sunday.

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