What Schools Do The Best Job Recruiting And Developing Five Stars
For the final installment of the analysis of five-star recruits and the NFL Draft, let's take a look at which programs do the best job recruiting and developing five-stars.
In part one of the analysis I broke down the success of five-star recruits and the NFL Draft, looking at the 2011-16 classes.
In part two the focus was one which classes from 2011-16 had the most NFL Draft success.
Part three looks at which conferences and individual programs do the best job recruiting five-stars and then during them into NFL Draft picks.
Let's begin by looking at the conferences, going from the leagues that produce the most to the leagues that produce the fewest.
As expected, the SEC recruited the most five-star recruits from 2011-16, landing 94 as a conference. What was surprising is that the SEC landed more five stars than the other Power 5 conferences combined (92).
Alabama's 26 five stars were more than the entire Big Ten (18) and Big 12 (12), and just one fewer five-star recruit than the entire Pac 12 (27).
The SEC's 53.2% "hit rate" was also slightly better than the other combined leagues, who had a 51.1% hit rate. A hit rate is when a player is drafted from rounds one through four.
The SEC also had a better overall success rate in getting players drafted, with 69.1% of its five-star recruits ultimately getting selected, which was better than the 60.9% rate for the other leagues.
It should be noted the Big 12 dragged down the other leagues due to 66.7% of its five-stars going undrafted. If you just look at the ACC, Big Ten and Pac 12 their success rate in turning five-stars is 65.0%, which is much better but still not to the level of the SEC.
The ACC had the second most five-stars due mainly to the success that Florida State had during the selected period. Clemson had just eight five-star recruits in those six years, which makes its success even more impressive.
Clemson went 9-5 against SEC schools during the years mentioned and has gone 16-7 from 2011 to the present, although the Tigers are 10-2 against SEC foes in the last four seasons.
Clemson had a strong hit rate, but the rest of the league largely struggled, with the ACC finished second to last among Power 5 schools in hit rate. Clemson turned half (50%) of its five-stars into first round picks, which is by far the best rate among all programs that signed at least four five-star recruits.
That is significantly better than the next closest program, which was Alabama at 38.5%.
As a league, the ACC turned 65.7% of its five-star recruits into draft picks.
I was a bit surprised to see the Pac 12 as the third-best among Power 5 programs when it comes to landing five-star recruits, and the Pac 12 also had a significantly better hit rate than both the ACC and the Big 12.
USC had almost half of the league's five-stars, and the Trojans were one of the nation's best when it came to turning five-stars into round one through four picks.
As a league, the Pac 12 turned 63.0% of its five-star recruits into draft picks.
Expect the Big Ten to look much better when it comes to landing five-stars as the 2017-2020 classes finish up their tenures. Through the period discussed, the Big Ten had the second lowest success rate when it comes to turning five-stars into first round draft picks (16.7%), but that too will see a significant rise as the 2017-20 classes finish up, due largely to Ohio State's success rate in recent seasons.
Maryland and Rutgers each landing a pair of five-stars was a surprise, and none of those recruits turned into round one through four draft picks. Three of those Rutgers-Maryland five-stars went undrafted.
An impressive statistic was Michigan State going 54-14 from 2011-15 despite landing just one five-star recruit. The Spartans have fallen off since then, going just 27-24 from 2016-19.
The Big 12 struggled in every possible manner when it comes to five-star recruits. The conference finished last in total five-stars landed and its hit rate was abysmal. Things could improve a bit if 2016 signee Caleb Kelly (Oklahoma) is able to bounce back from his 2019 season-ending injury and jump up on draft boards.
Just 33.3% of the five-stars signed by the Big 12 were drafted, although all four drafted players were in the first four rounds.
Now let's look at the nation's Top 15 programs at landing five-stars, and how they performed at turning those five-stars into draft picks.
Five of the top seven programs at landing five-star recruits are from the SEC, which should be a surprise to you now that you've gotten this deep into the analysis.
It was interesting to see that three of the top five programs were sub-50% with their five-star hit rate.
Here's a look at which programs among that top group had the best hit rate.
Ohio State led the way for hit rate percentage, and the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide far out-paced the remainder of the programs.
Clemson led the way in overall draft rate percentage, with 87.5% of its five-stars getting drafted in any round. Alabama was next with an 80.7% draft rate, followed by Georgia (78.6%), Florida (77.8%), Ohio State (75.0%) and Auburn (71.4%).
Georgia was quite good at getting its five-stars drafted, but its overall hit rate was just 42.9%, and the Bulldogs produced just one first round pick during the selected years. That was good for just a 7.1% rate.
Notre Dame had just two of its five five-stars get selected. Linebacker Jaylon Smith went in the second round and defensive end Aaron Lynch - who ultimately transferred to South Florida - was picked in the fourth round. Notre Dame's other three five-stars (QB Gunner Kiel, DE Ishaq Williams, S Max Redfield) all went undrafted.
NOTE: This analysis refers to five-star players that were signed by each program out of high school. Transfer out are included in the analysis, but transfers in are not. Those players are credited to the program they signed with.
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