Oklahoma's Path to the New Year's Six Appears Blocked Ahead of Bowl Season

The No. 12-ranked Sooners appear bound for the Alamo Bowl unless chaos reigns on conference championship weekend.

Author:
Ryan Chapman
Publish date:
Nov 30, 2023 11:00 AM EST

In this story:

Oklahoma’s path back to a New Year’s Six bowl game appears obstructed after the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings.

The Sooners (10-2, 7-2 Big 12) appeared at No. 12, sitting last out of a grouping of two-loss teams that includes No. 9 Missouri, No. 10 Penn State and No. 11 Ole Miss.

The Sugar Bowl and the Rose Bowl will serve as semifinal hosts this postseason, leaving berths in the Fiesta Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl and the Peach Bowl up for grabs.

Unfortunately for the Sooners, they likely needed to climb to No. 10 to feel good about their chances of landing in the New Year’s Six.

The top four teams will obviously head to the College Football Playoff, leaving the squads ranked fifth and lower to head off to the marquee bowl contests.

The highest ranked Group of Five conference champion, likely the winner between No. 22 Tulane and SMU (No. 24 Liberty will also have a shot) will receive an at-large big to a New Year’s Six bowl, likely the Peach bowl.

Miami will host an ACC school as well due to the Orange Bowl’s tie-in with the conference, meaning a loss by No. 13 Louisville to No. 4 Florida State won’t rule out a New Year’s Six berth for the Cardinals.

From there, six spots remain.

The loser of Friday’s Pac-12 title game between No. 3 Washington and No. 5 Oregon won’t fall out of the New Year’s Six, and neither will Ohio State.

Texas’ placement at No. 7 means the Longhorns probably won’t vault into the playoff with a win over No. 18 Oklahoma State, so the winner of the Big 12 Championship will take the ninth spot in the New Year’s Six.

Alabama could usher in all the chaos, vaulting from No. 8 into the top four with a win over No. 1 Georgia in Atlanta, but the Crimson Tide also are probably looking at a berth in the New Year’s Six at the minimum, with its only other loss coming at the hands of the Longhorns.

That would leave Missouri, Penn State, Ole Miss and Oklahoma left over to fill the final spots.

The Sooners have the best win of the group per the committee, as evidenced by Texas’ ranking, but OU has consistently checked in below the Tigers, the Nittany Lions and the Rebels in the rankings since dropping back-to-back games to Kansas and Oklahoma State.

With all four teams idle this weekend, it’s unclear what, if anything, could change for the committee to suddenly vault Oklahoma over Ole Miss or Penn State.

This would leave OU to make its second trip in three years to San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl.

Oklahoma would be slated to take on a Pac-12 team in the Alamodome, which is likely going to end up being No. 15 Arizona.

It would be the highest-ranked matchup outside of the New Year’s Six, a chance the Alamo Bowl would be silly to pass up.

Oregon State is the next-highest ranked Pac-12 squad at 20th, but the departure of head coach Jonathan Smith to Michigan State makes the Beavers less appealing that Jedd Fisch’s side.

The matchup would pit Brent Venables’ defense against Arizona’s offense, which ranks 19th in the country in total offense, and the Wildcats are inside the top 40 in total defense to square off against an OU offense replacing offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby.

Oklahoma probably won’t get a shot to finish the year on a high in a major bowl game, but a win over No. 15 Arizona to seal an 11th victory before headed to the SEC would still be a rewarding finish to Venables’ second season back in Norman.