Three Realistic Goals For Oklahoma QB Jackson Arnold in 2024
NORMAN — This fall, Oklahoma sophomore Jackson Arnold will steer the Sooners through one of their most important years in program history.
After sitting for a year behind now-Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel, the former 5-star quarterback from Denton, TX, is one of the most anticipated newcomers in the country at one of the most prestigious positions in the country.
Sure, being Oklahoma’s quarterback comes with the spoils, but it also comes with the eyes of a fan base that has seen winners and wants another one occupying the position. It’s not completely unlike being a politician. Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts have set the bar extremely high for the incumbent. It’s inevitable that fans, bloggers, writers and broadcasters around Norman won’t maintain their patience should Arnold’s start yield poor results, while many outside of Norman fully hope his season crashes and burns in the Eastern Time Zone.
What can fans realistically expect from Arnold as he navigates the Sooners's schedule in 2024? More importantly, what should Arnold himself aspire to in year one? Providing he starts every game and doesn't endure any other setback, here are three goals he can shoot for this season.
Winning Record
It’s hard to say any OU quarterback in recent memory has had a greater task. If Arnold guides the Sooners above .500 in SEC year No. 1, it will be one of the best debut years in program history.
It’s also just not completely in Arnold’s hands. The success of Brent Venables’ defense likely will play just as great a role in the public perception of Arnold as his own performance, and the number of fans who will judge his success on whether he registers a W or an L every week isn’t low.
Arnold should make good on the first three against Temple on Aug. 31, Houston on Sept. 7 and at Tulane on Sept. 14. There’s also a non-con against Maine scheduled for Nov. 2. If Arnold is still the man by then and can’t win that game, scrap this whole blog.
The work begins against Tennessee on Sept. 21, but opening the year with four home games (and each one potentially a greater challenge than the last) could do wonders for Arnold’s confidence. And a 4-0 start would do wonders for the Sooners’ confidence in Arnold.
After a bye week on Oct. 5, it’s Texas week. The defending Big 12 champions, who made their first College Football Playoff appearance last season, will be ready to show the college football world that they’re the superior addition to the SEC. Arnold will need to have all of his poise with him in Dallas on Oct. 12, but the Sooners aren’t any more outmanned than they were when they left with a win last October.
Not that any SEC opponent should be taken lightly, but South Carolina on Oct. 19, Ole Miss on Oct. 26 and Missouri on Nov. 9 all defended the pass poorly a year ago.
Here’s what others were able to accomplish in their first year as Oklahoma’s full-time starter in the Big 12:
- Sam Bradford, 2007: 11-3, Big 12 champions
- Landry Jones, 2009: 7-3, Sun Bowl champions
- Blake Bell and Trevor Knight, 2013: 11-2, Sugar Bowl champions
- Baker Mayfield, 2015: 11-2, Big 12, College Football Playoff semifinal
- Kyler Murray, 2018: 12-2, Big 12, College Football Playoff semifinal
- Jalen Hurts, 2019: 12-2, Big 12, College Football Playoff semifinal
- Spencer Rattler, 2020: 9-2, Big 12, Cotton Bowl champions
- Dillon Gabriel, 2022: 6-6
3,000+ yards, 20+ touchdowns, <10 interceptions
For reference, here’s who hit these marks in the SEC last year: Georgia’s Carson Beck, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart and Mizzou’s Brady Cook. South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler was one touchdown short with 19 and Alabama’s Jalen Milroe and Florida’s Graham Mertz were each within 150 yards of that mark.
In year one of the SEC, Seth Littrell isn’t going to hold Arnold back, and bringing in a proven quarterback whisperer in Kevin Johns solidified that suspicion. OU will need Arnold's zippy arm and pocket presence on full display, and six appearances last year, a trial run in the Alamo Bowl and non-conference openers against Temple, Houston and Tulane will have the sophomore fully out of the stable by Sept. 21 against Tennessee in Norman.
Here’s how the opposing conference defenses on OU’s docket finished against the pass in 2023: Tennessee was eighth, Auburn third, South Carolina 12th, Ole Miss 10th, Mizzou seventh, Alabama second and LSU 13th.
AP SEC Newcomer of the Year
It’s not clear how this award will be judged yet; will any player from the conference’s two inherited teams be considered a newcomer? Or will it retain the classic definition of players who are first-year starters and/or transfers for their respective teams? If it’s the latter, Arnold will have a solid case to make if he accomplishes the first two.
As expected, there’s plenty of quality transfers coming into the conference in 2024 — but not at the quarterback position. The top three of 247Sports’ top transfers (Ole Miss DL Walter Nolen, Texas WR Isaiah Bond and Mizzou OL Cayden Green) are all transfers from inside the conference. Texas A&M edge Nic Scourton, who made 50 tackles and 10.0 sacks at Purdue last year, is considered the top newcomer into the conference out of the portal.
To close, a quote from Brent Venables at last week’s pre-spring media day:
“The growth has to happen everywhere. Small sample size from where (Arnold) was a year ago. ... Getting comfortable, leading, decision-making, timing aspect of it. The mechanics, footwork, eyes, the trust in the guys around him, all those kinds of things. He’ll have to get better at all those things. There’s no particular area that he needs to improve over the other.
“He’ll be the first one to tell you he’s going to go right down that check list.”
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