3 Up, 3 Down: Oklahoma State Baseball Keys to Advancing from Regionals
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are working this week to devise a strategy to get out of the Tuscaloosa Regional and advance in the NCAA Tournament.
The Cowboys have been here before. This is their 13th straight NCAA Tournament appearance, all under head coach Josh Holliday. Oklahoma State knows the drill. But once the game starts, all bets are off. The best-laid plans usually go down the tubes quickly.
Here are the things the Cowboys must do — and must avoid doing — to get out of regionals as the No. 2 seed in the Tuscaloosa Regional
Throw Quality Innings
Sure, quality starts from pitchers like Gavin Lund and Stormy Rhodes would be great. But in a regional, all hands are on deck, and the bullpen is going to get plenty of work. The plan usually goes down the tubes fast. So the Cowboys need to focus more on quality innings than quality starts. Why? Let’s do some math.
The Cowboys have thrown 486.1 innings this season. That’s in a total of 220 appearances, regardless of a pitcher starting or relieving. The group has faced 1,915 hitters. That means, on average, OSU pitchers are facing 8.7 hitters per appearance. Figure a target average of 15 pitches per inning — and five pitches per hitter in a three up, three down inning — and the average appearance is 40 pitches.
That’s why it’s about quality innings.
Push the Power
The Cowboys have been one of the best power hitting teams in college baseball this year. Only Georgia has more home runs as a team than Oklahoma State, which has 137 going into regionals. The Cowboys average 2.4 home runs per game. They need to be pushing three per game this week. Once teams get deep into their bullpens, the offense tends to take over matchups, especially the later games.
Oklahoma State needs the usual suspects to get it done. That includes Kollin Ritchie (29), Aidan Meola (17), Coln Brueggemann (16), Alex Conover (14), Garrett Shull (14) and Brock Thompson (10).
Avoid Losing Game 1
It goes without saying and the Cowboys know the drill. Losing the first game of a double-elimination regional like this makes the path to reach supers so much harder.
Oklahoma State faces USC Upstate in the first game of the regional on Friday. The Spartans have won 14 of their last 16 games. This is their second trip to the NCAA Tournament. They will be hyped. They know that the Cowboys are a blue blood in this sport, with the third-most NCAA Tournament appearances ever. Winning would be a big deal for them.
Losing would be a big deal for the Cowboys. If the Cowboys must lose in this tournament, they must try to put it off as long as you can. But a loss on Friday would require them to win four games in a row. That’s a tough road for any team.
Win Game 4
For the two teams that win on Friday, they face each other in the final game on Saturday. The winner of that game gets a pass to the regional final on Sunday and some leeway. If they lose on Sunday, they get another shot to clinch on Monday.
Oklahoma State’s previous regional appearances under Holliday are informative. The three times it has advanced to super regionals it won not only its opener but that Game 4, which put Oklahoma State in the regional final, where they won and advanced. Every other time they’ve failed to get out of regionals the Cowboys either lost the opener on Friday, or the first loss came in that Saturday winner’s bracket game.
The exception? There’s always one. That was 2022, when the Cowboys won their first two games and then lost to Florida two straight times.
Wech and Pesca in the Ninth
The Cowboys want to get the ball to Noah Wech and Mario Pesca in the ninth inning with a lead. The duo is Oklahoma State’s best chance to get a save in that situation. Wech leads the team with six saves, though most came in the first half of the season. But he’s 2-4 with a 4.05 ERA in 23 games. He has struck out 48 and walked 18.
Pesca is 6-4 with a 5.62 ERA in 17 games, 10 of which have been starts. But he also has two saves. He’s recorded both of his saves in the past few weeks and has pitched in a primary relief role for about a month. Between the pair, they can handle the ninth in a winning situation. The Cowboys just have to get them there.
Turn Back the Tide
The Alabama Crimson Tide are the No. 7 overall seed. They’re hosting a regional for good reason. They’ll be hosting a super regional if they can win their regional. They’ll be tough to beat. History says so.
The NCAA Tuscaloosa Regional will be the sixth time Alabama has hosted an NCAA Regional since 1999, with the Crimson Tide owning a 12-2 (.857) mark in 14 all-time contests as a Regional host.
So, yes, the Cowboys really can’t afford to lose Game 4.
Tuscaloosa Regional
Location: Tuscaloosa, Ala. Venue: Sewell-Thomas Stadium (5,867).
Dates: May 29-June 1
Regional Participants: Alabama (No. 7 national seed, at-large bid), Oklahoma State (at-large bid), USC Upstate (Big South Conference champions), Alabama State (SWAC champions)
Records: Alabama, 37-19, No. 2 Oklahoma State, 37-20; USC Upstate, 33-28; Alabama State, 34-21).
Tuscaloosa Regional Schedule and Results
Friday’s Games
Game 1: USC Upstate vs. Oklahoma State, 1 p.m., ESPN+
Game 2: Alabama State vs. Alabama, 6 p.m., ESPN+
Saturday’s Games
Game 3: Game 1 loser vs. Game 2 loser, TBA (elimination game)
Game 4: Game 1 winner vs. Game 2 winner, TBA (advances to Sunday’s final)
Sunday’s Games
Game 5: Winner Game 3 vs. Loser Game 4 (elimination game)
Game 6: Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 5
Monday’s Game
Game 7: Winner Game 6 vs. Loser Game 6 (if necessary)
(Times subject to change for TV purposes)
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Matthew Postins is the publisher of Oklahoma State on SI. He is an award-winning sports journalist who was formerly the editor of the College Football America Yearbook and covers the Big 12 Conference for Heartland College Sports.
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