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ESPN's FPI Casts Long Shadows as Cowboys Face Steep Odds in Big 12 Battles

Oklahoma State could be in for a long season.
Taylor Skieens|
Sep 6, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback Zane Flores (6) throws a pass during the first half against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images
Sep 6, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback Zane Flores (6) throws a pass during the first half against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

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Oklahoma State Cowboys

Cowboy faithful, brace yourselves. After that 69-3 drubbing at Oregon left the Pokes at 1-1, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has rolled out a grim forecast for the rest of Oklahoma State’s season. Those 20,000 simulations spit out a projected 2-10 record, leaving the Cowboys with their second straight disappointing football season.

Mike Gundy’s squad, still licking wounds from Eugene, faces a brutal road ahead. But in Stillwater the morale may be lo,w but the O-State fans will continue to hold onto hope. Let’s unpack this gauntlet and see where the Pokes can punch above their weight.

First up for the Pokes in the search for win number two is Tulsa. FPI gives OSU a 78.7% chance to win, a bright spot in a cloudy forecast. The Golden Hurricane, stumbling at 1-1 after a shaky FCS win, will face a Cowboy squad eager to rebound. Zane Flores should lean on Rodney Fields Jr., who could churn out 130 yards behind a fired-up O-line. The defense, led by transfer linebacker Bryan McCoy, needs to bottle up Tulsa’s run game. Expect a rowdy home crowd to push the Pokes to a 33-16 rout, setting the tone early.

Then, the Big 12 meat grinder kicks in. Sept. 27 against Baylor at home? A measly 18% chance. Dave Aranda’s Bears boast a stout front, and OSU’s pass protection looked shaky last week. Sawyer Robertson could feast on the Oklahoma State secondary as they cruise to a 23-20 victory.

Oct. 4 at Arizona? Just 12.5% odds. The Wildcats’ speed in Tucson exploits OSU’s secondary, still reeling from Oregon’s air raid. Pokes keep it close but fall 27-14. Houston on Oct. 11 (27.8%) at home offers a glimmer of hope, but that is quickly dashed. Trent Howland bulls for a score, but Houston’s schemes prevail, 21-17.

Cincinnati (26.2%) on Oct. 18 for homecoming is one of the Pokes' best predicted chances of the season. The Bearcats' big boys up front lock up the Cowboys' offense. Cincy narrowly escapes 24-20. Texas Tech (8.6%) on Oct. 25 in Lubbock has the potential to be brutal. Behren Morton’s arm torches Oklahoma State's backfield, and the Cowboys fall 30-21 to the Red Raiders.

Nov. 1 at Kansas (10.5%) sees the Jayhawks out-scheme Oklahoma State. The Cowboys’ line falters to the tune of a 26-16 loss. Kansas State (21.9%) at home on Nov. 15, and the Wildcats' Avery Johnson and his dual-threat style overwhelm O-State, and K-State rolls to a two-touchdown win.

UCF (13.6%) on Nov. 22 in Orlando will see the Pokes' struggles continue. The Knights win 29-20. Finally, Iowa State (16%) on Nov. 29 at home is the Cowboys' final chance to close out the season with a victory. They can't get it done, and Iowa State dominates 28-14.

The Oregon loss exposed a green rookie quarterback and a porous D-line. FPI’s numbers sting, but upsets are Oklahoma State’s lifeblood. Cowboy Nation, keep the faith. These are just odds, not destiny.

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Taylor Skieens
TAYLOR SKIEENS

Taylor Skieens has been an avid sports journalist with the McCurtain Gazette in Idabel, Oklahoma for seven years. He holds the title of Sports Editor for one of the oldest remaining print publications in the state of Oklahoma. Taylor grew up in the small lumber town of Wright City Oklahoma where he played baseball and basketball for the Lumberjax.

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