How ESPN Projects the Final 11 Games of Oklahoma State's Season

Oklahoma State has an interesting season ahead, but bouncing back won’t be easy.

After securing their first win of the 2025 season against UT Martin on Thursday, the Cowboys’ focus has shifted to their matchup against Oregon. In a potential statement game for the Cowboys, they will have their hands full against a legitimate national championship contender.

While OSU is a heavy underdog in that matchup, it will be looking to overcome the odds. Not only does OSU need to try to overcome the odds against the Ducks, it will be fighting to prove its doubters wrong for the rest of the season.

So, here’s a look at OSU’s chances of winning each of its final 11 games, according to ESPN analytics.

An expected finish to nonconference play

at Oregon: 6.7%
vs. Tulsa: 88.6%

While the prevailing assumption is that the Cowboys will fall to Oregon and bounce back against Tulsa, it is at least interesting to see that ESPN believes the Golden Hurricane has roughly double the chance of winning in Stillwater as OSU does of winning in Eugene.

Considering the Cowboys haven’t lost to Tulsa in the Mike Gundy era and even won 45-10 on the road in last season’s 3-9 campaign, they should enter Big 12 play with a winning record, regardless of how ugly things might get against Oregon.

Pivotal start to the Big 12 schedule

vs. Baylor: 41.1%
at Arizona: 32.1%
vs. Houston: 61.1%
vs. Cincinnati: 48.1%

Going purely off which side has the better projected chance of winning, ESPN thinks the Cowboys will be 1-3 to begin Big 12 play. However, with at least a 40% chance of winning their first three Big 12 home games, the Pokes could have a solid shot at getting within a win of bowl eligibility through seven games.

It would also be huge if the Cowboys could win at Arizona in what could be their first win outside of Oklahoma since the 2023 Texas Bowl. In any case, it’s hard to imagine any world where OSU leaves this stretch with a losing record and still manages to make a bowl game.

Upset alert to finish?

at Texas Tech: 24.3%
at Kansas: 20.3%
vs. Kansas State: 32.9%
at UCF: 32.5%
vs. Iowa State: 29.4%

There’s no doubt that OSU will have to beat the odds in its final five games to find its way to a bowl game. With a home matchup against 1-1 Kansas State being OSU’s best projected shot at a win in the final few weeks, things could spiral if the Pokes aren’t careful.

Considering four of OSU’s final five opponents have real aspirations for the Big 12 title, the Cowboys also might have a chance to play spoiler in addition to getting bowl eligible. While things could easily go downhill to finish the year, some signature wins in this stretch could kickstart this era of Cowboy football as it looks ahead to 2026.

While ESPN only projects two wins for the Pokes in the final 11 games, football isn't binary and certainly isn't played on paper. While things don't look favorable for the Cowboys after Week 1, just remember how wrong these projections and many others were about the Pokes in 2024.