OSU Football: Big 12 Tiebreakers Could Complicate 2024 Season

The Big 12's tiebreakers caused chaos last season and might do the same in 2024.

Oklahoma State’s path to a Big 12 title will not be any easier next season.

The final weeks of the 2023 season were largely spent breaking down tiebreakers and matchup scenarios for the Big 12 Championship. OSU’s blowout loss to UCF after knocking off Oklahoma in Bedlam caused a bit more chaos than anticipated in the final games.

With how things worked out in the last week of the season, the Cowboys entered their game against BYU, knowing all they had to do was win to get in. After trailing by 18 points at halftime, the Cowboys came back to secure a double overtime win and kept OU out of the Big 12 Championship.

In Arlington, OSU was throttled by Texas in a 49-21 loss. With Texas and OU headed to the SEC next season, OSU is seen by many as the next team to be a mainstay at the top of the conference.

However, a 16-team conference without divisions has the potential to cause chaos. With nine conference games and the two best conference records making the conference title game, the days of a round-robin making things easy are in the distant past.

In the 12 seasons the Big 12 had 10 teams from 2011-22, tiebreakers with conference title implications could always be decided with a simple head-to-head. Although that ended up being the case again last season, head-to-head tiebreakers with an expanded conference will continue to be more difficult to find.

For example, OSU will not play Kansas or Arizona next season, and those teams will not play each other. It is possible for those teams to go undefeated throughout the regular season, which could lead to a 12-0 team missing the conference championship. 

Considering the first three steps of a multi-team in the Big 12 revolve around winning percentages or records, they would all become null if there were three undefeated teams. In that situation, strength of conference schedule would determine the championship game participants.

Although that is an extreme example, it illustrates the potential tiebreak issues that can occur in a 16-team conference. However, with the College Football Playoff expanding to 12 teams next season, tiebreak issues should not have any major impact on the national championship.

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