Three Bold Predictions for Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Murray State in Week 3
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The Oklahoma State Cowboys Are trying to get above .500 for the first time since week one of the 2025 season. To do it they'll need to beat the Murray State Racers.
The Cowboys (1-1) are coming off their massive 39-31 win over Oregon on Saturday, one that put them in position to have a winning record going into Big 12 play against West Virginia next week.
The Racers (1-2) are coming off a high of their own as they won their first game of the season by beating Valparaiso on the road last Saturday. But the Racers haven't played an opponent of Oklahoma State's quality in two years, and they haven't beaten an FBS team since 1984. It will be a tough road for Murray State to win this one.
As for the Cowboys, they just want to continue building on the momentum they created last week with one of the biggest upsets of the season to this point.
Here are three bold predictions for Saturday’s game between the Cowboys and the Racers.
The Cowboys Won’t Have 500 Total Yards Again
The Oklahoma State Cowboys stunned pretty much everyone by gaining 554 yards against Oregon last week. That was an unusual game for many reasons, not the least of which was that Oregon entered the game with a unit that many believed was one of the best defenses in the country. The Cowboys just flat out executed.
Looking at Murray State on paper it would seem Oklahoma State has a good chance of eclipsing 500 yards again. But there's a couple of reasons why I don't think they will.
First, I expect Oklahoma State to get a big lead and hand the game over to its reserves by no later than the end of the third quarter. Those second-stringers will be going up against Murray State’s first stringers and likely won’t be as efficient.
Second, I looked back at Murray state's last game against an FBS opponent and that was against Missouri in 2024. The Tigers got close, but they ended up with 489 total yards.
With the expectation that the Cowboys will take their foot off the gas late, I expect them to fall just short.
Caleb Hawkins Won’t Be the Leading Rusher
Caleb Hawkins was barely the leading rusher last week. He finished with 110 yards and quarterback Drew Mestemaker had 109, most of which came on a 75-yard run.
This is my logic. If this game goes the way I believe it will, head coach Eric Morris and his staff will rotate in many players. He’s trying to sort out the back-up situation at running back, though Ayo Adeyi went a long way toward solidifying himself last weekend. He’ll also want to get Hawkins some rest when possible.
Therefore, I think either Adeyi or Tre Page III will be the leading rusher by the end of the game. Not to say Hawkins won't have an efficient outing, I just don't think he'll get the volume of carries that he got last week against Oregon.
Cowboys Will Score a ‘Big Man’ Touchdown
I'll give myself a little grace and say it could be an offensive big man touchdown or a defensive big man touchdown. But this feels like the kind of game where Morris could get a little creative offensively and allow one of his tackles to go out for a pass. I don't know which of his offensive lineman have the capability to do that, but this seems like the opportunity to experiment a little bit.
On the defensive side I could see an end like Jaleel Johnson or Malik Charles picking up a fumble and taking at the length of the field for a touchdown. If the Cowboys have Murray State pinned back, watch a player like Iman Oates — assuming he plays — or Jerry Lawson picking up a fumble and making the short run to the end zone.
Either way, one of the big men will get in on the action.
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Matthew Postins is the publisher of Oklahoma State on SI. He is an award-winning sports journalist who was formerly the editor of the College Football America Yearbook and covers the Big 12 Conference for Heartland College Sports.
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