A Statistical Jordan Ta'amu vs. Shea Patterson Deep Dive

According to reports from NFL Network's Tom Pelissero, the Kansas City Chiefs are signing former Michigan and Ole Miss quarterback Shea Patterson to an undrafted free agent contract.

The deal for Patterson comes nearly two months after Kansas City signed former Ole Miss quarterback Jordan Ta'amu signed with the Chiefs following a season-shortened XFL stint with the St. Louis Battlehawks.

All Ole Miss fans know how the two will forever be intertwined.

A five-star recruit and the No. 1 ranked pro-style quarterback in the recruiting class of 2016, Patterson took over as the Rebel starter in the middle of his freshman season when Chad Kelly tore his ACL.

Named the starter as a sophomore in 2017, Patterson went down with a knee injury against LSU in October. It was later revealed that he had torn his PCL, causing him to miss the remainder of the season.

A transfer from the New Mexico Military Institute, Ta'amu opened 2017 as the Rebel backup to Patterson, before coming in as the starter over the final games of that season following Patterson's injury.

When the NCAA dropped the hammer on Ole Miss following that season, Patterson was off to Ann Arbor. Ta'amu remained in Oxford.

Would Ta'amu have beaten out Patterson if both stayed? Many around the program back then think so. Now, they're going too be fighting it out again to see who can make the Kansas City behind Patrick Mahomes (and potentially Chad Henne).

But did Ole Miss keep the right quarterback following that 2017 season? Let's let the numbers decide. And since we all have bias, we'll start with a blind test of each's average game over the course of their careers.

Completion Percentage	Passing Yards / Game	Yards / Attempt	Touchdowns / Game	Interceptions / Game	Passer Efficiency
Quarterback A	64.4	294.7	9.48	2.11	0.63	156.8
Quarterback B	60.2	244.4	8.01	2.11	0.75	143.1

Obviously, with Patterson playing two more seasons at the FBS level than Ta'amu, any aggregate numbers should favor Patterson. But the table above eliminates any aggregate numbers, looking at everything on a per game basis.

Quarterback A is clearly better, right?

Below are each's full-career stats by season. First Patterson, then Ta'amu:

Year	School	Games	Comp. %	Yards	YPG	Y/A	AY/A	Passing TDs	Interceptions	Efficiency Rating
2016	Ole Miss	3	54.5	880	293.3	6.7	6.6	6	3	121.0
2017	Ole Miss	7	63.8	2259	322.7	8.7	8.4	17	9	151.5
2018	Michigan	13	64.6	2600	200.0	8.0	8.4	22	7	149.8
2019	Michigan	13	56.2	3061	235.5	8.0	8.3	23	8	139.4

Year	School	Games	Comp. %	Yards	YPG	Y/A	AY/A	Passing TDs	Interceptions	Efficiency Rating
2017	Ole Miss	7	66.5	1682	240.3	9.7	10.0	11	4	164.5
2018	Ole Miss	12	63.6	3918	326.5	9.4	9.4	19	8	153.5

Quarterback A is Jordan Ta'amu. His individual, statistical college career was simply much better than Patterson's regardless of how you break it down. The three-star recruit that took the JUCO route to Oxford bests the five-star recruit.

And those numbers (except the touchdowns per game from chart one) just look at passing. The Rebel offense over the past handful of seasons always operated better with a quarterback capable of running. It's another thing Ta'amu was simply better at than Patterson.

Playing only 19 FBS games compared to Patterson's 36, Ta'amu on aggregate still beats out Patterson with 507 rushing yards to 476. Ta'amu scoured a rushing touchdown in 53-percent of his collegiate game compared to 22-percent for Patterson.

So those numbers are all individual, but how did the teams fare with each under center? This question is tougher to answer since Patterson never played a complete season at Ole Miss, having filled in after injury as a freshman and getting hurt in game seven as a sophomore. And then Ta'amu only played one full season with Ole Miss.

So the best way to compare is by looking at 2018, the only time both played full years of college football at their respective schools at the same time.

Ole Miss went 5-7 (1-7 SEC) in 2018; Michigan went 10-3 (8-1 Big10). Butttttttt, that was a Wolverine team with one of the best defensive units in the nation. The Michigan defense that year allowed only 262.5 yards per game, tops in FBS football. A defense like that makes running an efficient offense easier.

Here's how the two school's offensive numbers matched up in that 2018 season:

Points / Game	Yards / Game	Passing Yards / Game
Ole Miss	33.9	510.5	346.4
Michigan	35.2	419.5	215.7

In fairness, some of these numbers are stylistic. Michigan, with that defense, did not have to score like Ole Miss. Playing with more leads, they did not have to pass to the degree that Ole Miss did.

Just about the only place Michigan's numbers favor that to Ole Miss is by looking at the efficiency of the passing game, and even these numbers are close.

By two separate offensive efficiency metrics, S&P+ and Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), the Ole Miss offense was marginally better. But the Michigan pass attack was more efficient, doing so in much less attempts. That said, the difference is minute – both were among the best in the nation in that regard.

FEI Offensive Efficiency	S&P+ Offensive Efficiency	S&P+ Passing Efficiency
Ole Miss	0.65 (No. 16 nationally)	42.1 (No. 6)	112.7 (No. 14)
Michigan	0.64 (No. 17 national)	35.5 (No. 25)	113.7 (No.9)

There probably wasn't a right or wrong in 2017. Ole Miss kept the guy that wanted to be here and let the guy that didn't want to be here walk. Ta'amu went on to put up incredible individual numbers in 2018 despite playing on a struggling team. Individually, Ta'amu's numbers are a lot better than that of Patterson. As with team numbers, they're shockingly similar efficiency-wise.

Ta'amu now gets a chance to best Patterson again, this time attempting to make the Kansas City Chiefs roster.

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