FPI Win Projections for Ole Miss Football

ESPN released their preseason Football Power Index win total projections on Friday, a mathematical prediction on how many games each FBS program will win.

Will Ole Miss make a bowl game? Based on these projections, yes. FPI is predicting 6.1 wins for Ole Miss in the 2020 season, assuming all games are played as scheduled. This would rank them 6th of 8 in the SEC West, ahead of Arkansas (5.0) and Mississippi State (4.6).

Who's too high?
Who's too low?

ESPN FPI's 2020 projected win totals ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/CSm6Fysble
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) May 2, 2020

Broadly speaking, the FPI model accounts for team strength, opponent strength and home-field advantage. More specifically, the strength of a team and opponent comes down primarily to a measure called expected points added, as well as a few other metrics.

For these preseason projections, the expected points added is primarily based the prior season's on-field performance, adjusted for the percent of relevant players returning for the next season.

Clemson, Ohio State and Alabama are the three favorites, by FPI, to win the 2020 National Championship. The algorithm gives Clemson a 36-percent chance at the title and an 81-percent chance at reaching the playoff. Ohio State's title odds sit at 21-percent while Alabama's rest at 17-percent.

Reigning national champion LSU, having lost countless players to the 2020 NFL Draft (five in the first round alone), has just a 4-percent chance by FPI to repeat. The Tigers also lost passing game coordinator Joe Brady to the NFL and defensive coordinator Dave Aranda to Baylor.

If the model proves true, Ole Miss will be playing in their first bowl game since their Sugar Bowl victory over Oklahoma State.

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