SEC Picks Against the Spread, Best Bets for Week 1

We can finally, finally gamble on SEC football again.

Ya'll aren't here to read a long preamble, but there is one thing we want to point out before we get into our picks and best bets for week one.

Going into the season, we are very strongly going to lean towards teams with the most continuity. Without spring ball and with an abbreviated training camp and no warmup non-conference games, teams with new coaches and/or new quarterbacks are going to be at such of a disadvantage this season.

For similar reasons, we're going to lean towards lower scoring action and therefore the under for the first few weeks. So let's get to the picks.

Florida (-13.5) at Ole Miss, o/u 57.5

Noon ET, ESPN

This game is a great example of our continuity theory. Dan Mullen brings back quarterback Kyle Trask, both The Grove Report's pick and the SEC coaches' pick for All-SEC First Team quarterback. On the other side, Lane Kiffin is making his Ole Miss debut and has not even named a starting quarterback yet.

Pick: Florida 32, Ole Miss 20 (Ole Miss covers +13.5, under hits)

Kentucky (+8.0) at Auburn, o/u 49.5

Noon ET, SEC Network

Bo Nix could see a serious year-two bump at Auburn. If you read our SEC season-long best bets column earlier this week (found here), you know we're pretty high on Nix and Auburn here. That said, Kentucky loves to make games ugly with their strength in the trenches. A lower scoring game gets the Wildcats a cover but a loss.

Pick: Auburn 27, Kentucky 24 (Kentucky covers, over hits)

Mississippi State (+16.5) at LSU, o/u 56.5

3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Mike Leach makes his SEC debut on the road in Baton Rouge against an LSU team that lost its quarterback, play caller and defensive coordinator from last year's national championship team. No team in the nation has had as many high-profile opt-outs as the Tigers, but it's a team that replaces talent and opt outs with other five stars from prior year. Myles Brennan's play will set the ceiling for the Tigers, but they're going to have some early-season kinks to work through.

Pick: LSU 35, Mississippi State 24 (Mississippi State covers, over hits)

Georgia (-28.0) at Arkansas, o/u 53.0

4 p.m. ET, SEC Network

Arkansas stinks. In our season-long bets column we had both the Razorbacks and a Vanderbilt team that we will get to in a minute both going 0-10 in this All-SEC slate. They're simply going to struggle to put up points on this Georgia defense that might be the best one Kirby Smart has had since he arrive in Athens.

Pick: Georgia 31, Arkansas 10 (Arkansas covers, under hits)

Alabama (-28.0) at Missouri, o/u 56.0

7 p.m. ET, ESPN

This is the rare game that will a) be a blowout but b) actually will be worth watching. I'm pretty excited to see what Eli Drinkwitz, a guy that had only one season as an FBS head coach before taking over at Missouri, can do with the Tigers long term. But it's still Saban's conference. Watch Alabama to see if Mac Jones can keep the Crimson Tide offense flying high or if it's going to be a team that will have to shade from its quarterback play all season.

Pick: Alabama 41, Missouri 17 (Alabama covers, over hits)

Tennessee (-3.5) at South Carolina, o/u 43.5

7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network

The perpetually overrated Volunteers travel to a sneaky bad South Carolina team to open the year. Woof. This should be the lowest scoring game of the weekend. I do expect Jarrett Guarantano to be much better for Tennessee this year, but just for fun we're going to take the underdogs and grad transfer quarterback Collin Hill to pull off the upset outright for South Carolina in this one.

Pick: South Carolina 20, Tennessee 17 (South Carolina covers and wins outright, under hits)

Vanderbilt (+30.5) at Texas A&M, o/u 46.0

7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network Alternate

Gross. As mentioned with Arkansas, I hate everything about this Vanderbilt team. I don't particularly love the Kellen Mond & Jimbo Fisher dynamic, but if they're ever going to turn it around together there's no better way to start the season than against Vandy.

Pick: Texas A&M 37, Vanderbilt 7 (Vanderbilt covers, under hits)

**All spreads and totals via. Westgate Superbook at 1 p.m. on Friday, Sept. 25

The Grove Report's Best Bets for Week 1:

Georgia and Arkansas UNDER 53.0

Many around the Georgia Program believe this is Kirby Smart's best defense since he arrived in Athens, better than the 2017 defense that nearly won them a national championship. I struggle to see how Sam Pittman's new team can do anything on this Georgia D.

Kentucky +8 at Auburn

Mark Stoops has built the Wildcats into what has become a sneakily consistent SEC football team. Kentucky has won at least seven games for four straight seasons, going 10-3 and 8-5 in the past two years. Stoops has built this team through the offensive and defensive lines, and to say the Wildcats may have the best OL in the league isn't a stretch at all. That trench play will keep in close with Bo Nix and Auburn.

Alabama -28 at Missouri

This is the 'don't overthink it bet of the week.' Two weeks ago, I won big just blindly laying over 44 and 49 points with Texas and Oklahoma against UTEP and Missouri State, respectively. It was never close from the start. Yes, the difference here is Alabama is playing a conference game. But don't let the number scare you into not taking Alabama against a rebuilding Missouri program.

Mississippi State +16.5 at LSU

Mike Leach and that air raid are getting beautiful backdoor cover opportunity here. I don't think this game will be all that close, but we'll look back and the score will be closer than the actual game. Picture K.J. Costello driving, slinging the ball around in the 4th quarter against an LSU defense up big playing prevent that no longer has DC Dave Aranda. Backdoor heaven here.

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