Pac-12 Realignment: Where Things Stand Right Now

The Pac-12 is still stuck at 7. Will the conference reach the minimum 8 full members? Who will join? What happens next?
Oct 26, 2024; Berkeley, California, USA; A view of the Pac-12 logo on the jersey of Oregon State Beavers punter Josh Green (37) during the second quarter against the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images
Oct 26, 2024; Berkeley, California, USA; A view of the Pac-12 logo on the jersey of Oregon State Beavers punter Josh Green (37) during the second quarter against the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Earlier this week, the 2024-25 college football season reached its conclusion. While Oregon State fans might need to wait months for the spring game, there is one more compelling game to circle on the calendar:

The Pac-12 vs the Mountain West.

Which conference will survive realignment? That question has been on my mind for months. Earlier this week on State of the Beavs I shared some thoughts on the Pac-12's legal battles, and potential realignment opportunities. I'm going to elaborate on that here.

Wait for the Pac-12/Mountain West Court Clash to Resolve

As reported by national and regional sports writers, the Pac-12 and Mountain West are locked in a serious legal battle. At the heart of the issue is a $55M pile of cash that is currently allocated towards a poaching penalty - a fee charged when Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, and Utah State left the Mountain West - but the legality of that poaching penalty clause is up for debate in the courts.

The Pac-12 sued the Mountain West. The Mountain West have filed a counter-suit against the Pac-12. I believe this case is the single biggest hurdle to realignment for both conferences. Mountain West financial promises to UNLV and Air Force hinge on the money from those poaching penalties. For added measure, an extra $55M might sweeten the pot for the Pac-12 to lure other schools. Memphis & Tulane were reportedly interested in joining the conference, but balked at the lack of a known TV deal. UConn administrators also held meetings with the Pac-12, but scoffed at the potential travel costs.

Wait for Sacramento State to Move Up a Level

Sacramento State is a sleeping giant. Located in the nation's 20th-ranked media market, a day's drive from the Bay Area and a quick flight from the recruiting hotbeds of Los Angeles & San Diego, the Hornets have all the potential in the world to build a contender. Finally, they're beginning to realize that potential.

In late September, school officials announced plans for a new multi-purpose stadium that would host football games. Last month, they hired UNLV rising-star offensive coordinator Brennan Marion to be their next head coach. Over the past few weeks, Marion has led an eager staff on the recruiting trail, earning commitments above the level normally expected of an FCS school. My gut tells me this is a program on the rise. Earlier this month, their school president hinted to a Sacramento-area TV reporter that "We will be FBS and we will be FBS very soon".

I believe the only thing holding them back is that new stadium. Announcements of plans are one thing. Shovels in the ground are another thing entirely. Once construction finally starts, I believe the Hornets will prepare for a move up to FBS, and a bid to join the Pac-12 Conference.


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Matt Bagley
MATT BAGLEY

Matt fell in love with radio during his college days at Oregon Tech, and pursued a nine year career in sports broadcasting with Klamath Falls' and Medford's highest-rated sports radio stations. He currently lives in McMinnville wine country and is excited to talk about the Beavers again.