For Penn State, a Familiar Question Returns: Is the Oregon Game a 'Must-Win'?

The Nittany Lions have another chance to end the big-game narrative when they host the Ducks.

Penn State football head coach James Franklin arrives with the Nittany Lions for the game vs. the Nevada Wolf Pack. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I’ve been thinking about Penn State’s 2005 season a lot recently. For a variety of reasons, that team falls among the program’s most beloved. It was the first good team after the so-called “Dark Years,” a time in the early 2000s when Penn State didn’t do much winning and did a lot of ugly losing. In that context, the 2005 season single-handedly saved the final chapter of Joe Paterno’s career prior to all of that.

On the roster itself, Michael Robinson is as beloved as they come in the Penn State quarterback fraternity. Paul Posluszny, one of the benchmarks of what it means to be a Penn State linebacker. Derrick Williams, a testament to recruiting. Deon Butler, a showcase of consistency. 

Add in a dramatic win over Ohio State that functions as a foundational piece of the modern fabric of the program and an Orange Bowl victory against Bobby Bowden for good measure. You’re left with unforgettable.

But the 2005 season also came with one of the most iconic losses in Penn State history: a final-second defeat at Michigan. Whatever clock drama might have happened, the loss marked the only blemish on the resume of an otherwise perfect team.

Penn State honoring the 2005 team during the break pic.twitter.com/CJXOMhv3Ym

— Audrey Snyder (@audsnyder4) September 13, 2025

I think about 2005 because it is a reminder of how things have changed in the college football landscape. There are Penn State-specific reasons why the 2005 season holds so much weight among fans. But it’s one of the last times you could say, “What a great season,” even though Penn State’s functional take-home was a bunch of good feelings and fake oranges. 

There have been great seasons since then, but the pressure to do more has only grown. And that brings us to the Sept. 27 clash against Oregon and the ever-present question: Is this a must-win?

Getting over the hump

A Penn State Nittany Lions fan reacts during the 2024 Big Ten Championship Game vs. the Oregon Ducks. | Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

On some level, the answer is yes. Although it might be better framed as, “Is the Oregon game among the most potentially consequential of the James Franklin era?” since Penn State losing will not materially change the program itself. The only people who will talk about firing Franklin if Penn State loses will be the ones who won’t have to pay his buyout.

Word choice nitpicking aside, Penn State has had countless chances to win games like these and has almost entirely come away with nothing to show for them. Whatever value you give to a handful of NY6 Bowl wins, a Big Ten Title and a friendly path to the CFP semifinals, Penn State hasn’t come out of these big games with wins. Instead, it left with the feeling of, “Man, we sure came close again.”

So from the perspective of fan exhaustion, there’s something to be said for getting over this hump. It’s not that losing to Oregon — which might very well be the better team — would be a failure. But Franklin does suffer from having generated the perception (not without reason) of being one of the most successful coaches in the country who has also managed to not do much more than mostly beat the teams he should. Franklin needs to win one of these, eventually, right? 

It is not a trivial fact that his biggest regular-season win (Ohio State in 2016) was the byproduct of a good bounce. What if that blocked field goal never made its way to Grant Haley? What if it was simply recovered and Penn State never scored. And what if Ohio State didn’t beat Michigan in overtime to help send Penn State to the Big Ten Championship Game?

A quarterback's legacy

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar throws a pass during a warmup prior to the game against the Villanova Wildcats at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

If you’re Drew Allar, the answer is probably yes as well. The quarterback’s skills are undeniable, but aside from a few moments, he has mostly offered up a Sean Clifford Career with better accuracy. Penn State hasn’t done a ton to help Allar at times, but if his entire aura is predicated on the idea that he is better than his predecessors, there’s no time like the present to get some wins his predecessors didn’t.

Of course, there is an operational truth to the season as well. If Penn State loses, it can still do all the things it wants to do. That will likely require beating Ohio State in Columbus, but the era of one-loss-and-done is over in college football. It’s also true that we have said “this is a must-win” for Penn State for years now, and nothing has really happened when it lost.

Win or lose, the Nittany Lions will almost certainly find themselves in this position again next year. Which, in many ways, is the most overlooked part of the Franklin era. He might be coming up short, but it’s not for a lack of annual attempts. Gotta get to the big game to lose it.

All of this puts Penn State and Franklin in an unenviable position. Winning has never been harder than it is right now in college football, but the expectations not to lose have never been higher. Because back in 2005, the season was celebrated. In 2025, it’s just another almost.