Penn State Casts Wide Net in Pursuing New Football Coach

The truth is, nobody really knows who Penn State is going to hire as its next football coach.

Still, that hasn’t stopped anyone from the fun of guessing. You can Google a million lists, but all anyone is really doing at this point is reshuffling the same names and adding one or two new ones because someone realized Coach X once flew over Pennsylvania.

We’ve even got predictive markets like Kalshi posting the likelihood that a coach might land the job based on odds directly influenced by users betting on them. And let’s not forget social media. It’s an echo chamber of people pretty certain that a coach is going to get hired, even though they have no idea where the rumor started.

It’s the coaching-search version of saying Bloody Mary in the mirror three times, except instead of an evil spirit, it’s Facebook comments summoning the hiring of Nick Saban.

All told, the amount of actual intelligence into this search is minimal. Penn State Athletic Director Pat Kraft would love to hire all sorts of people, and will interview all sorts of coaches, but at least a third of the names that emerge will be the product of an agent somewhere leaking something to someone.

Bits and pieces will leak here or there, but in the end, everyone is going to find out who got hired around the same time. So instead of guessing, let’s look at the coaching archetypes from which Penn State might actually choose.

The hot coordinator: Big ideas, little experience

Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady on the field before a game against the New York Giants at Highmark Stadium. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

The hot coordinator is someone like Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator and former Penn State graduate assistant Joe Brady or Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein. These are guys who clearly know football but don’t have the experience of running a big-time program. These are big-swing hires, but sometimes big misses.

Case in point. It’s great that Brady can call an offense with one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the game. But can he recruit? Can he deal with donors and the temperaments of a roster twice the size of that in the NFL?

Hiring the hot coordinator isn’t a bad move if it works, but it does mean taking a chance. You could throw Ohio State offensive coordinator Brian Hartline in this batch too, although his time around a program like Ohio State and the Big Ten at-large puts him more toward the safer end of the scale here.

The Rising Star: Small-school success gets the promotion

James Madison Dukes head coach Bob Chesney on the sidelines during a game at Kenan Memorial Stadium. — James Madison Dukes head coach Bob Chesney on the sidelines in the second quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Every great coach had their first big gig. Urban Meyer came from Bowling Green, Nick Saban was at Toledo. A coach like James Madison’s Bob Chesney fits that mold as a coach who has had success at a lower level and might be ready to make that leap.

The difference between a rising star and a hot coordinator is that a rising star has dealt with a lot more program management. Hiring here means you might hit a home run for cheaper and also take on a bit less risk than with a coordinator. If you want to save a few million but make a hire you can defend, look here.

The regional outsider: Which way is the DMV?

Ole Miss Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin celebrates with fans after the game against the Oklahoma Sooners. — Ole Miss Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin celebrates with fans after the game against the Oklahoma Sooners at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

If Penn State wants to reinvent itself, it could hire a coach who doesn’t fit in the footprint. It might be fun to think about Lane Kiffin walking the Beaver Stadium sideline, but it’s more likely Penn State is going to hire someone who has shoveled snow before.

Good coaches can recruit and win anywhere, but finding a culture fit — inside and outside of the football building — is important. Still, nothing says total reset like a southern drawl in Central PA.

The CEO: Big-picture view

James Franklin had his flaws, but big-picture management wasn’t one of them. The question here is if Penn State wants to continue the course in terms of head coaching priorities or pivot toward something else. You could argue both ways: Franklin did a lot well, but his blind spots also got the program to where it is today.

The Xs and Os: Film junkie outsourcing the day-to-day

Opposite the CEO coach is the Xs and Os guy. In a world with ever-expanding football staffs, the once-CEO coach might not be needed as much anymore. Don’t need to worry about Problem X if there’s an entire job focused on solving it.

Penn State had too much success to say that the approach under Franklin simply didn’t work. But for all his wins, Franklin never felt like a tactical advantage in big games. If Penn State hires a coach who is deep in the football weeds and hires good support around him, the 5 percent improvement might be found there.

The established coach: I’ve done it all

Texas A&M Aggies head coach Mike Elko looks on prior to the game against the Florida Gators at Kyle Field. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

The obvious option comes last. Penn State could throw a lot of money at a coach who you can trust: Mike Elko and Kalen DeBoer would fit this category. There’s never a guarantee that a coaching hire will work, but it’s safe to say that someone who has had success at one Power 4 school can find it at another one. These names tend to be the ones you read about the most but also tend to be the hardest to come by.