Scouting Penn State Bowl Projections

The Lions are surging into New Year's 6 contention, with the Rose and Orange bowls still in play.

Author:
Mark Wogenrich
Nov 13, 2022 7:14 PM EST

In this story:

Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State's New Year's 6 bowl possibilities collected some murk after college football's Week 11 results. But fear not: The Lions have two weeks to continue carving a path to the Rose, Orange or Cotton bowls.

Penn State improved three spots to No. 11 in the AP Top 25 after its 30-0 win over Maryland, perhaps an indicator that Tuesday's release of the College Football Playoff rankings will bring a similar climb. Still, the Lions have a forest to navigate to an NY6 bowl game.

What's the latest? Here's our look at Penn State's bowl possibilities.

Rose Bowl

When: Jan. 2
Where: Pasadena, California
Matchup: Big Ten Vs. Pac-12
What to watch: Ohio State and Michigan rolled to big wins and are double-digit favorites this week, solidifying their place among the CFP's Top 4 at this stage. That's a good sign for the Lions, who need both teams to make the College Football Playoff to earn a Rose Bowl invite.
The likelihood: TCU's win over Texas reduced the Big Ten's two-representative odds a bit, particularly if there's a blowout either way in Columbus in two weeks. The Horned Frogs still probably need to go 13-0 to make the playoff, though. Penn State fans rooting for the Rose Bowl should root for TCU to be eliminated from playoff contention, opening more room for a second Big Ten team.

Orange Bowl

When: Dec. 30
Where: Miami Gardens, Florida
Matchup: ACC representative vs. Highest-ranked of Big Ten. SEC, or Notre Dame.
What to watch: Wins by Alabama and LSU solidified them above Penn State, though the higher-ranked of the two will contend for the Sugar Bowl. LSU faces Georgia in the SEC title game, which will play a role in Penn State's bowl future.
The likelihood: Penn State faces an upstream swim to the Orange Bowl, needing to pass at least one, and maybe two, SEC teams — and that's assuming Georgia and Tennessee make the playoff.

Cotton Bowl

When: Jan. 2
Where: Arlington, Texas
Matchup: Highest-ranked At-Large vs. Highest-ranked Group of 5 team.
What to watch: Sean Clifford's second Cotton Bowl depends on the collection of Pac-12 and SEC teams ranked above Penn State. Last week there were four Pac-12 teams (USC, UCLA, Oregon and Utah). This week there's probably two, with Oregon's loss to Washington and UCLA's loss to Arizona.
The likelihood: Because both playoff games, the Fiesta and Peach, normally host at-large teams, the number of at-large slots is lower for this season's NY6 games. That hurts Penn State, which could be ranked in the top 12 and still miss the NY6 because of contracts (Big 12 to the Sugar, ACC to the Orange) and higher-ranked teams.

Citrus Bowl

When: Jan. 2
Where: Orlando
Matchup: Big Ten vs. SEC
What to watch: The opponent. The Lions could get a first date with Ole Miss and coach Lane Kiffin, who might not even be the team's coach for bowl season if he takes another job.
The likelihood: If the NY6 falls through, Penn State is all but guaranteed a trip to Orlando for the first time since 2018.

Penn State visits Rutgers on Nov. 19 at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, N.J. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network.

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AllPennState is the place for Penn State news, opinion and perspective on the SI.com network. Publisher Mark Wogenrich has covered Penn State for more than 20 years, tracking three coaching staffs, three Big Ten titles and a catalog of great stories. Follow him on Twitter @MarkWogenrich. And consider subscribing (button's on the home page) for more great content across the SI.com network.