Penn State Returns Home to Face Unprecedented Odds vs. Indiana

The Nittany Lions are first-time underdogs to the Hoosiers. They also have never lost to Indiana at home.

Penn State Nittany Lions running back Nicholas Singleton (10) runs for a touchdown during the second quarter against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

Following a 38-14 loss at Ohio State, Penn State returns home to no reprieve. The Nittany Lions host Indiana on Saturday as underdogs to the Hoosiers for the first time in program history.

Unbeaten and second-ranked Indiana opened as a 13.5-point favorite over the Nittany Lions, who have lost five consecutive games. According to the Oddsshark database, which dates to 1995, Penn State has never been an underdog against the Hoosiers. Though it has been a slim favorite on occasion, Penn State has never been an underdog to Indiana.

During the 5-6 season of 2001, Penn State was a three-point home favorite over the Hoosiers, winning 28-14. In 2004, after losing six straight games, Penn State was a four-point road favorite vs. Indiana and won the game on a late goal-line stand. And in 2013, the Nittany Lions were 3.5-point favorites at Indiana, where they lost 44-24.

But the returning Big Ten playoff teams have gone in very different directions this season. Penn State has lost five straight games for the first time since 2020 and has not won a game vs. a Power 4 opponent. The Nittany Lions are coming off a 38-14 loss to top-ranked Ohio State, their ninth straight in the series.

Meanwhile, Indiana is 9-0 and ranked second in the AP Top 25 for the third consecutive week. The Hoosiers arrive at Penn State fresh off a 55-10 win over Maryland. Indiana has won its last three games by at least 25 points.

The Penn State-Indiana game is scheduled for a noon ET kickoff on FOX. The game is Penn State's first at Beaver Stadium since James Franklin's Oct. 12 firing. The Nittany Lions last played at home Oct. 11, when it lost 22-21 to Northwestern.

Indiana has never won at Beaver Stadium

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer (17) looks to throw during the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Penn State-Indiana series has been quite one-sided in Big Ten play. The Nittany Lions are 25-2 against the Hoosiers since 1993 and 13-0 at Beaver Stadium. Indiana has beaten the Nittany Lions only twice: in 2013 (44-24) and in the memorable overtime game to start the 2020 COVID season.

But Penn State also has not played an Indiana team coached by Curt Cignetti. The second-year coach has led the Hoosiers to consecutive 9-0 records for the first time in school history. Indiana also is 6-0 in the Big Ten for the second straight season.

Indiana rewarded Cignetti with a new eight-year contract worth an average of $11.6 million per year through the 2033 season. That effectively ended any potential for Penn State to pursue Cignetti in its coaching search.

Indiana is second in ESPN's latest SP+ ratings, just a shade behind Ohio State. Penn State (3-5) is 22nd, the highest-ranked team with a losing record.

According to ESPN's College Football Power Index, Indiana brings the nation's second-ranked defense and fourth-ranked offense to Beaver Stadium. Indiana leads the nation in scoring offense, averaging 46.4 points per game, and quarterback Fernando Mendoza ranks third in ESPN's QBR.

RELATED: How Penn State QB Ethan Grunkemeyer navigated his return home

Penn State's still 'in the middle of the storm'

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day shakes hands with Penn State Nittany Lions interim head coach Terry Smith following their game at Ohio Stadium. | Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Penn State fell to 0-2 under interim head coach Terry Smith, whose team made some small strides at Ohio State. The Nittany Lions became the first team to score a first-half touchdown against the Buckeyes this season. They also scored 14 first-half points, two more than the Buckeyes' previous seven opponents combined.

But Ohio State raced through Penn State's secondary in the second half, scoring 21 unanswered points with quarterback Julian Sayin going 9-for-9 for 148 yards and two toucdowns.

“Yeah, they’re obviously hurting,” Smith told reporters after the game in Columbus. “We’re in the middle of the storm, and we just can’t figure how to get out of it. The seniors are hurting. I feel awful for those guys to end their careers this way.

"It’s very challenging. It’s challenging for all of us, but we have to figure out how to keep fighting. We’re going to keep chopping wood. The one positive of the game: These guys did not quit, and that’s a testament to who they are as well. We've just got to figure some other things out.”

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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