Penn State's Path to Victory Over Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl

Depending on whom you ask, Penn State heads into the Fiesta Bowl just shy of a two-touchdown betting favorite against Boise State. Or more to the point, Penn State is a double-digit favorite to make the College Football Playoff semifinals.

It's a remarkable thing to consider. The idea that Penn State might make a run in this bracket was never a shock. But as that thought slowly turns into reality, the Nittany Lions actually closing in on a national title game appearance is such a far cry from even the most optimistic outlooks on the season just a few months ago. It has gone from, “Penn State will be happy to finally make the postseason,” to, “Penn State might be among the favorites to make the final.”

There’s a chance this will be Penn State’s best chance in a while, too. The Nittany Lions stand to be plenty talented next year with the return of Drew Allar, and there’s no real reason to think Penn State will be anything but a regular playoff attendee for the foreseeable future. But considering Penn State’s favorable draw in this year’s bracket, the opportunity will likely only get harder. That’s particularly true if and when the CFP selection committee changes the seeding procedures again. The days of SMU/Boise State pathways might be gone sooner than later.

But first things first.

To actually beat Boise State is a different task than simply talking about it. As nearly everyone knows, the Broncos boast Ashton Jeanty, this year’s Heisman runner-up and a bowling ball of a running back. Jeanty leads the nation in rushing by nearly 1,000 yards and is three shy of 2,500 on the season.

Also of note, Jeanty is just 133 yards shy of breaking Barry Sanders’ single-season record. An October meeting against UNLV is the last time Jeanty finished a game under 130 yards. He has six games this year with 200 or more and would have tallied a few more on top of that if not for plenty of second-half rest.

Can Penn State stop Jeanty? That’s not the question. The NIttany Lions hope to simply slow him down. As for big-picture records, in the history of the program Penn State has never given up more than 251 yards to a single running back, that honor going to Ted Brown of North Carolina State in 1977. In total, only 11 running backs have gained more than 200 yards on a Penn State defense, the most recent being Chase Brown of Illinois, who rushed for 223 yards in 2021.

Beyond that, Penn State will have to keep Drew Allar upright. The Broncos are second in the nation in total sacks with 51, just one behind Ole Miss. For its part, Penn State is ranked 20th in the nation in sacks allowed, having given up just 15 all season. Which immovable objects vs. unstoppable force wins that matchup could determine much of the game.

The reason? Boise State ranks 109th in the nation in passing defense, giving up an average of 246 yards per contest. If the Broncos can’t get to Allar, even Penn State’s lukewarm receiver room might find the space to make the most of a potentially porous coverage unit. The most comparable opponent is Purdue. The Boilermakers gave up six more yards per game through the air than Boise State, and Allar and company managed four passing touchdowns against Purdue this year with an 81.5 percent completion rate.

Lots of moving pieces. All told, the path is there. Even if there is a world where Boise State pulls off another Fiesta Bowl shocker, Penn State is a favorite for a reason.

And if Penn State avoids the upset, the team will find itself one win away from the national title game. A crazy thing to bounce around in your head as the Fiesta Bowl gets closer and closer.

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Ben Jones has been covering Penn State athletics for 13 years, having been to countless home and road games for Nittany Lion sporting events spanning from the Rose Bowl to the NCAA Tournament. He's also the author of the book Happy Valley Hockey. You can read his work at https://benjonesonpennstate.substack.com and follow him on X (Twitter) at Ben_Jones88