Way-Too-Early Look at Penn State's Bowl Projections in 2026

Following his last game as interim head coach, Terry Smith called Penn State's Pinstripe Bowl victory over Clemson the "greatest moment of my life."

See? Bowl games still matter, even as college football debates the value of expanding the playoff to 24 teams. Smith couldn't hold back tears after the Nittany Lions capped a forgettable season with a memorable win.

"I said I wasn't going to do that again," Smith told ESPN, "but I'm just so happy for our guys."

Look at what Penn State and a bowl game win means for interim head coach Terry Smith 🥹 pic.twitter.com/35zdhXucNY
— ESPN (@espn) December 27, 2025

Not that Penn State wants to return to a bowl game this season under first-year coach Matt Campbell. Despite remaking the roster with 55 new players, Campbell actually is generating playoff expectations this season.

But what if Penn State finishes the season bowl-eligible but outside the current 12-team playoff field? The Nittany Lions' bowl options will look familiar, as the Big Ten's bowl tie-ins remain the same for the 2026-27 season. At least for this season, the bowls wil continue the conference contracts that the bowl games had last season.

The Big Ten maintains contracts with six bowls, while the four former Pac-12 teams also retain contracts with that conference. Which is why, for instance, USC played in the Alamo Bowl last season and Washington played in the (now defunct) LA Bowl.

Penn State almost certainly won't return to the Pinstripe Bowl no matter its record, so here are the five bowl games the Nittany Lions are most likely to play in this season. Assuming, of course, they don't make the College Football Playoff or finish 5-7. And for the record, the Rose Bowl is a CFP semifinal game that will be played on New Year's Day.

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

A general view of the Cheez-It logo on the field before a game between the Michigan Wolverines and Texas Longhorns at Camping World Stadium. | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

The Citrus Bowl in Orlando retains its place among the leading non-playoff bowl games, drawing the top non-qualifiers from the Big Ten and SEC. Last year, Texas defeated Michigan 41-27.

This season's Citrus Bowl is scheduled for a noon ET kickoff Jan. 2 at Camping World Stadium. Penn State has a long history in the bowl game, having played in it five times since joining the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions made their last Citrus Bowl appearance in 2019, falling to Kentucky 27-24. A nine-win Penn State team that doesn't make the playoff has a strong case to make for visiting Orlando.

ReliaQuest Bowl

Penn State might have the highest odds of going to Tampa if it doesn't make the playoff, and particularly if it goes 8-4. The Nittany Lions have been a consistent draw at Raymond James Stadium, playing there five times since 1995. Their last appearance capped the 2021 season with a 24-10 loss to Arkansas.

Interestingly, the Citrus and ReliaQuest bowls will be played on different days this season. The Big Ten and SEC matchup in Tampa will kick off at noon on New Year's Eve. Iowa defeated Vanderbilt 34-27 last season.

Music City Bowl

James Franklin never returned to Nasahville in his 11+ seasons at Penn State, so the Nittany Lions have yet to play in this game. A seven- or eight-win season could get them there for the first time.

The Music City Bowl is another Big Ten-SEC game scheduled for Dec. 30 at Nissan Stadium. It has a limbo kickoff time, though: 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday. More time on Broadway post-game, apparently. Last year, Illinois beat Tennessee 30-28.

Duke's Mayo Bowl

Campbell's last bowl appearance was the quirkily branded Pop-Tarts in 2024, when his Iowa State Cyclones beat Miami 42-41. Would he prefer mayonnaise over breakfast pastries?

The Duke's Mayo Bowl has become one of bowl season's great marketing opportunities, landing tie-ins with the Big Ten and ACC. This season's game is scheduled for Dec. 26 in Charlotte, North Carolina. Not the most convenient timing for convincing starters to play.

Penn State probably doesn't play here if it wins more than eight games. But this seems like the most likely destination for a 7-5 Penn State team, especially considering the tie-in share with the Las Vegas Bowl.

Since Wake Forest beat Mississippi State 43-29 in Nashville last year, and Nebraska went to the Las Vegas Bowl, a Big Ten team is likely headed to the Duke's Mayo Bowl this season.

Cactus Bowl

The Minnesota Golden Gophers' Jalen Smith (left) and Anthony Smith (right) hold up the Rate Bowl trophy. — The Minnesota Golden Gophers' Jalen Smith (left) and Anthony Smith (right) hold up the Rate Bowl trophy after defeating the New Mexico Lobos at Chase Field. | Megan Mendoza/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The former Rate Bowl gets a new name and location. Now known as the Cactus Bowl, the Dec. 26 game will move from Chase Field in Phoenix to Mountain America Stadium, the Arizona State Sun Devils' home in Tempe, Arizona.

Penn State has never played a desert bowl game outside of the Fiesta Bowl, so this game seems like a long shot no matter the team's record. It's a Big Ten vs. Big 12 game, with Minnesota defeating New Mexico last season.

The full 2026-27 bowl schedule is out, featuring 44 games that include the playoff. Bowl season begins Dec. 12 in Atlanta with the Cricket Celebration Bowl and ends Jan. 25 with the national championship game in Las Vegas.

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