Penn State Gets Another Playoff Prediction, Albeit One That Needs Explanation

Matt Campbell certainly won't talk about making the College Football Playoff in Year 1 at Penn State, but that isn't stopping others from doing so. The latest: ESPN's Greg McElroy, who called the Nittany Lions a legitimate playoff contender this season.

Why? You know. The schedule. That perceived gift from the Big Ten that skips five of the conference's leading teams (notably the top three) and gives Campbell a year without the Ohio State Buckeyes, Indiana Hoosiers or Oregon Ducks.

Did Campbell and Penn State really hit the jackpot? McElroy certainly thinks so.

"This might be the most fascinating, gettable schedule in the country because of who's holding it," McElroy said on the latest edition of "Always College Football."

McElroy places Penn State's schedule No. 2 among the Big Ten's most manageable behind Iowa, which is interesting since the teams don't play each other. What makes Iowa's more manageable? Not sure, really, as the Hawkeyes play at least one Power 4 team on their non-conference schedule, albeit an Iowa State team expected to struggle without Campbell.

Like Penn State, the Hawkeyes don't face Oregon or Indiana, though they do host Ohio State, and play road games at Washington and Michigan. Perhaps it's the finish: Iowa closes at Illinois and at home vs. Nebraska, while Penn State gets Rutgers and Maryland. But the two schedules appear quite similar, with Penn State's actually looking more favorable from a preseason perspective.

Penn State Nittany Lions coach Matt Campbell looks on from behind the line of scrimmage during practice at Beaver Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

One separating factor McElroy rightly points out between Penn State and Iowa is at quarterback. The Nittany Lions have their starter in Rocco Becht, who has started and won more games than any returner in the FBS. Mewanwhile, Hawkeyes coach Kirk Ferentz still must choose between Jeremy Hecklinski and Hank Brown.

But McElroy also overstates the level of rebuild Campbell underwent with Penn State's 2026 roster. The Nittany Lions returned 52 players from their 2026 team, or, as McElroy noted, just 27 who were on scholarship. That's true but missed some context.

McElroy contended that Campbell "did something radical" and "tore the roster to the studs," which presumes that the Penn State coach had a choice. Which he really didn't.

First, Penn State was going to lose a big number of experienced players to eligibility or the NFL Draft. Notably, eight were drafted and seven more signed free-agent contracts. That, combined with nearly 50 transfers, certainly hollowed out the Nittany Lions' roster.

Still, Campbell and his staff still retained some of the program's most important players, including linebacker Tony Rojas, cornerbacks Zion Tracy and Audavion Collins, tight end Andrew Rappleyea and offensive linemen Anthony Donkoh and Cooper Cousins.

Ultimately, this from McElroy rings true for its potential.

"Camp inherited a built-in path to eight or nine wins," the ESPN analyst said, "if a roster with 20-plus new faces can figure out who they are early in the year. A friendly schedule is only friendly if strangers in the locker room can learn each others' names in that time.

"... So make no mistake. The most gettable landing, the softest landing in the Big Ten this year got handed to a guy that might have a legitimate chance to make the playoff in year number one. I really think that's possile for Penn State this year."

Stay tuned, as it all begins Sept. 5, when the Nittany Lions host Marshall at Beaver Stadium. In the meantime, watch McElroy's full show. The assessment of Penn State and Iowa begins at the 13-minute mark.

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