Why Penn State Is Getting Very Early College Football Playoff Attention

With a veteran quarterback and a friendly schedule, the Nittany Lions could be a quick contender in 2026.

Iowa State Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell celebrates with quarterback Rocco Becht after defeating the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

After beginning the 2025 season atop many oddsmakers' list of playoff contenders, Penn State quietly has receded ahead of Matt Campbell's first season. Which is understandable. According to DraftKings, for instance, Penn State's futures odds are +5,000 to win the College Football Playoff.

However, ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy thinks those odds are pretty favorable for Penn State bettors. With a knows-what-it-wants coaching staff, an experienced quarterback and a friendly schedule, Penn State is a team to watch, McElroy said. Perhaps not for thrilling football but as a potential December contender.

"They're going to be boringly, frustratingly and consistently good," McElroy said on the latest edition of his "Always College Football" show. "... Don't be surprised when December rolls around and Penn State is in position to host a home playoff game when everyone is still trying to figure out what happened the year before."

McElroy echoed some analysis shared here and elsewhere that Penn State could be a CFP contender in Matt Campbell's first season as head coach. The offseason elements are in place: a veteran coaching staff, a fourth-year starting quarterback in Rocco Becht and a schedule that does not include any of the Big Ten's returning playoff teams.

When compiled, Penn State's pros and cons list favors the former. "There s a realistic path right now to 10-2," McElroy said. "And in the 12-team playoff era, a 10-2 Penn State is a lock for a playoff spot and potentially even better than that."

RELATED: Matt Campbell wants to "unify" Penn State, starting with the lettermen

Rocco Becht is the foundation

Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht (3) passes during the second half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

McElroy made some intriguing comments about Penn State's new roster, notably its quarterback. Becht was a three-year starter for Campbell at Iowa State, where he won his coaches' hearts (and 26 games) with his grit and playing style.

Though Becht continues to rehab from offseason shoulder surgery, he has taken the offense's mantle at Penn State and is precisely who Campbell wants running it.

"He already speaks the language," McElroy said. "He knows what Matt Campbell wants, he knows the calculus of what they're going to try to implement offensively. ... In a season where so many teams are trying to integrate a mercenary quarterback from the portal, Penn State has a starter who's been in the system a really long time. That continuity by itself is worth a couple wins."

This isn't a "rebuild"

Penn State Nittany Lions football coach Matt Campbell (center) performs the ceremonial puck drop at a hockey game at Beaver Stadium between Penn State and the Michigan State Spartans. | James Lang-Imagn Images

Terry Smith, Penn State's associate head coach, made an interesting comparison recently, one that many might repeat in the coming months. Campbell signed 24 former Iowa State Cyclones to his first Penn State roster, recalling what Curt Cignetti did at Indiana.

Cignetti brought 14 players from James Madison to Bloomington. The Hoosiers won a national championship in Year 2.

"I think we were able to keep the core group of guys that we don't have to start from square one," Smith said. "Then the blended family that came from Iowa State, I think it's a perfect match. To be honest, it's almost like Curt Cignetti, when he brought the JMU guys to Indiana. We brought a great group of guys from Iowa State who have blended with our current Penn State guys."

McElroy sees the blend materializing early for Campbell and Penn State.

"While the national media is kind of calling it a, quote, rebuild, I'm here to tell you that Matt Campbell didn't come here to State College just to build a foundation," McElron said. "He brought the whole house with him."

Some possible question marks

Penn State Nittany Lions football coach Matt Campbell speaks at a press conference at Beaver Stadium. | Mark Wogenrich/Penn State on SI

Of course, Year 1 likely won't be a smooth road to playoff success. Penn State's defense is undergoing a complete overhaul, with significant new personnel for new coordinator D'Anton Lynn. However, McElroy sees potential there despite a "significant exodus of defensive players," primarily because linebacker Tony Rojas returns.

"Rojas is the heartbeat of the defense, the anchor of the Matt Campbell era," McElroy said. "He's a really good starting point for this signature 3-3-5 defensive structure that they've used for quite some time."

In addition, Penn State will debut a largely new offensive line, returning just one starter in guard Anthony Donkoh. Plus, as McElroy said, Big Ten lines operate on a different level physically from those in the Big 12.

"[Penn State] lost a lot of good pieces on the offensive line," McElroy said. "In the Big Ten, ... if you can't block you can't breathe. There's no quick fix to offensive line chemistry. Rocco Becht's a veteran, but even a veteran can't make plays if he's getting hit two seconds after the snap."

McElroy covers a lot more ground on his show. Watch it here.

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