Why Penn State Is a Few Blades of Grass From Being a Playoff Contender

The Nittany Lions have lost five games by a combined 16 points. A series of "what-ifs" have plagued them all season.

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) reacts during the fourth quarter against the Oregon Ducks at Beaver Stadium. | James Lang-Imagn Images

Penn State hasn’t won a football game in two months but has had five close calls. Interim head coach Terry Smith wants the team to believe in a forward-thinking “If,” referring to the “infinite possibilities” that could happen as long as the team stays together.

For Penn State, this season might be more "What if?" The Nittany Lions (3-6) have lost six straight games, five of them by a combined total of 16 points. The team had the ball in a second overtime to beat Oregon, the ball in the fourth quarter to take the lead vs. UCLA and fourth-quarter leads in three other games, including a 27-24 loss to No. 2 Indiana. 

Penn State lost consecutive games by one point (to Northwestern and Iowa) for the first time in the program’s 136-year history. No. 1 Ohio State is the only team to beat Penn State by more than six points.

“We’re all wanting the plays to go our way,” Smith said after Penn State lost to Indiana. “We’re talking blades of grass right back to the Oregon game.” 

So let’s apply that “If” to the past. What if the ball had bounced in Penn State’s favor a few more times? What would its record be? Would James Franklin still be the head coach?

What if Oregon’s Noah Whittington wasn’t down by contact?

This is how close Oregon was to not being down on the overturned fumble call 👀

📺:NBC pic.twitter.com/62yfJoeORR

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 28, 2025

Everything was different before Penn State and Oregon met at the White Out. The expectations were still sky-high. And while there were chants to “fire Franklin” during the Sept. 27 game, the thought of it actually happening seemed far-fetched. 

In the third quarter of a 3-3 tie, Oregon had the ball inside Penn State’s 10-yard line when quarterback Dante Moore handed off to Noah Whittington. Penn State defensive end Chaz Coleman forced the ball out of the running back’s grasp, safety Zakee Wheatley recovered it and Beaver Stadium went into a White Out frenzy.  

But that didn’t last. The play, called a fumble on the field, went to an automatic review and was overturned, as Whittington was ruled down by contact. Moore threw a touchdown pass on the next play. An On3 survey said the call was one of the 10 worst of the college football season.

The Penn State-Oregon game had multiple what-ifs. What if Moore’s fumble in the first overtime hadn’t bounced back to him? What if Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman hadn’t drifted back to intercept Allar in the second overtime? The Nittany Lions instead might have visited UCLA in a much different place.

What if UCLA had faced Tony Rojas?

Here's all 5⃣ of Nico Iamaleava's TDs vs. Penn State: pic.twitter.com/D07zz2eqMQ

— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) October 6, 2025

The road trip to Pasadena after the Oregon loss was supposed to help. Fans were enraged, and Franklin thought it would be a good time to get out of town. Then multiple forces conspired against the Nittany Lions against UCLA.

First, linebacker Tony Rojas, then the team’s second-leading tackler, sustained a long-term injury four days before the game. Meanwhile, UCLA, under interim head coach Tim Skipper in his second game, promoted Jerry Neuheisel to offensive coordinator that same day.

Neuheisel installed a new offensive gameplan, one that revolved around quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s ability to run. Iamaleava did just that, rushing for a career-high 128 yards, scoring three touchdowns, and throwing 166 yards and two more scores. 

Penn State’s defense had no answers and clearly missed Rojas, who Franklin said would have spied Iamaleava and limited his key rushes. The Nittany Lions flew home with their season on the brink.

But surely Penn State would get things right against Northwestern the following week, right?

What if Drew Allar doesn’t get hurt?

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin looks over quarterback Drew Allar (15) as he sits injured on the field during the fourth quarter against the Northwestern Wildcats at Beaver Stadium. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

Everything fell apart for Penn State at Beaver Stadium on Oct. 11. 

The Nittany Lions had a five-point edge in the fourth quarter against the Wildcats, who went on an 11-play, 75-yard touchdown drive to take a 22-21 lead. The defense couldn’t stop the run for a second straight week (Northwestern’s Caleb Komolafe finished the drive with 20 yards on three carries), and Drew Allar had to bring the offense back onto the field. 

No one knew it would be for the last time in his Penn State career. On third-and-four, Allar scrambled up the middle and stayed on the ground after getting hit. Allar attempted to walk off the field by himself but took only a few steps.

Allar was helped to the sideline and then carted to the locker room. After the game, in his last press conference as Penn State's head coach, Franklin said Allar’s injury was season-ending. Franklin was fired the next day.

If the defense had stopped Northwestern's touchdown drive, does Allar get into that situation? And if Penn State had won, Franklin likely would not have been fired the next day. Regardless of how the season would have ended, keeping Franklin didn’t feel guaranteed. But he and Allar might have made the trip to Iowa the following week. 

Instead, Smith and quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer were thrown into the fire at Kinnick Stadium for a prime-time game against the Hawkeyes.

What if Penn State’s defense stops Mark Gronowski?

Gronowski picks up 67 yards 💨 @HawkeyeFootball

📺: Peacock pic.twitter.com/50EpA1JnE2

— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) October 19, 2025

The Nittany Lions battled at Iowa, playing with a different energy compared to the previous two weeks. But they couldn’t catch, or force, a break. 

In the fourth quarter, after kicker Ryan Barker made a 32-yard field goal to put Penn State ahead 24-19, Hawkeyes quarterback Mark Gronowski ran up the middle on first down. It was a simple-looking play, until Gronowski sidestepped a Penn State safety's tackle attempt and raced for a career-high gain of 67 yards.

It remains the longest play against Penn State this season. Iowa scored a touchdown on the next play, and Penn State lost by one point, again. 

Had a few of those moments been different, Penn State could have been undefeated heading to Ohio State on Nov. 1. And even after that loss, Penn State still would have been in playoff position hosting Indiana.

That was another game Penn State led in the fourth quarter. This time, it came down to inches, blades of grass and a great play made by Hoosiers receiver Omar Cooper Jr.  

OMAR COOPER UNREAL CATCH FOR THE TD 😱🤯

WHAT A GAME. WHAT A CATCH. @IndianaFootball pic.twitter.com/PhHzKjuVB9

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 8, 2025

Penn State is winless in the Big Ten as it heads to Michigan State, which also doesn’t have a conference win. After Saturday, one team will. Does Penn State's fortune turn in East Lansing?

“We’re just trying to create [something], you know," Smith said. "Maybe we get the call for the blade of grass, and right now we're in that storm where we can't get the blade of grass. So just trying to make sure my guys know I'm fighting every way of the storm for the guys ... trying to turn the tide."

For the Nittany Lions, there are no easy answers for this season. 

“All of us are frustrated,” center and captain Nick Dawkins said. “Because to be quite honest with you, it’s like we’re thinking, ‘What do we need to do? What is it? Why?’”