Why Penn State Is the Most 'Due' Team in College Football

The question, "If not now, when?" has never been truer for James Franklin and the Nittany Lions.

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin against the Boise State Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The question, “If not now, when?” has never been truer for Penn State. The talent is there. This Nittany Lions' offense boasts two running backs who could set and reset the program’s all-time rushing record, backstopping a senior quarterback who can make all of the throws. Add in talented tight ends alongside promising transfer portal additions at wideout, and you’ve got as good an offense as the Big Ten has.

Now pair all that with one of the nation’s most consistent defenses, engineered this time around by one of the top defensive minds in the game. The result? One of the best teams in America.

So will it happen? Five reasons Penn State will have a real shot at the national championship this year, and five reasons it won’t.

RELATED: What coaching at Penn State means to James Franklin

Five reasons Penn State will compete for the national championship

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar looks to throw during the Blue-White Game at Beaver Stadium. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As good as anyone: There have been years when a someone has been the runaway, obvious, unquestionable team to beat right out of the gates. Think a good number of versions of Alabama under Nick Saban. This year, not so much. That’s not to say great teams aren’t out there, but Penn State is in that conversation as much as anyone. How this shakes out remains to be seen. But there’s something to be said for being part of the main pack.

All the pieces: It’s only a matter of time before we find out how good Penn State’s transfer portal additions are at wide receiver. But if we assume they’re at least serviceable, Penn State doesn’t really have a weak spot. Sure, this group has areas where it’s elite [running back] and areas with more questions [wideout and maybe linebacker], but there isn’t a red flag. Sometimes, the biggest thing about winning in college football is simply not shooting yourself in the foot and avoiding major weak points in the armor.

Defense wins championships: Penn State didn’t really need to fix its defense this offseason, but Jim Knowles is here to save the day anyway. Losing a guy like Abdul Carter isn’t going to make this defense better, but until Penn State fields a bad defense, you can assume it’ll have a good one. This era of college football might be about scoring points, but we’ve seen time and time again that a great defense makes the difference.

Sum of all mistakes: He has his flaws, but James Franklin isn’t short on strengths. This season’s schedule has a large, Buckeye-sized road trip to Columbus, but if there was ever a time to learn from the “almost” moments, this is the season to make good on those lessons. Franklin probably gets blamed for more things than he can really control, but there’s no time like the present to show he’s been paying attention to the bumps in the road.

Due for a bounce: This is a less quantifiable aspect of Penn State’s chances, but the Nittany Lions are due for a bounce. Sure, you might argue that sneaking into the Big Ten Championship and getting an easier playoff road last season was a stroke of luck. But in a decade that has been full of the other team finding a way to win or having something go their way, isn’t it Penn State’s turn? If you believe that good teams eventually get over the hump, Penn State is maybe the most “due” team in the nation.

RELATED: What is it like to work for James Franklin? His staff explains

Five reasons Penn State won’t compete for the national championship

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin reacts in the second half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium. | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Receiver room woes: To some extent, the belief that Penn State has undeniably solved its wideout problems with transfer portal additions is wishful thinking. Until those receivers start making big plays in big games, everyone is really just guessing and hoping. If they don’t, Penn State won’t get to where it wants to go. Simple as that.

Growing pains: Penn State has been able to change coordinators with a limited amount of growing pains over the years, but it’s always possible that Knowles’ learning curve is a tad too steep ahead of the Oregon game. It’s also possible that Ohio State is too familiar with what Knowles likes to do. Couple that with offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki being a bit too much in love with tricky plays when normal ones would work just fine, and there is a recipe here for issues.

The big boys know more:  If you believe that James Franklin is learning from his mistakes, you might also believe that programs like Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon have learned from their successes. If there’s a reason to think Penn State won’t get over the hump, it might simply be because the teams in its way are better at it. In a world decided by slim margins, institutional knowledge might be the biggest factor.

It’s all mental: Penn State doesn’t have a hard time playing Ohio State well, but it does have a hard time finishing the job. This might be a tad philosophical, but what if Penn State is just too in its own head about beating the Buckeyes? This Penn State team might be good enough to get a rare win over Ohio State on the road, but it might also find a way to falter in spite of itself, as several teams before it. Copy/paste for many of the big games that could follow.

Drew Allar doesn’t progress: It’s the least whimsical option of the bunch, but it’s entirely possible that the quarterback doesn’t take the next step. His talent puts him in rarified air, but some shortcomings in big games also put him in the same boat as his head coach — very good when it doesn’t really matter. That’s probably an unfriendly read of Allar’s career, but there is a world in which Allar doesn’t get better, and neither do his receivers. In that world, Penn State doesn’t win a national title.

Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin looks on from the sideline against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images