Will SMU Make the NCAA Tournament? Here is why and why not

SMU is a bubble team that is in decent shape to make the NCAA Tournament, but if other bubble teams advance far in their conference tournaments, then SMU may not be selected.

The Southern Methodist University Mustangs are represented by center Samet Yigitoglu and forward Corey Washington. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Here are the reasons why SMU may not make the NCAA Tournament

These are the main reasons why the Mustangs might not make it to the Big Dance. The first reason is that SMU was in a good position to make the tournament at the end of the regular season, but they lost more games than they won. They lost their last four regular-season games against Cal, Stanford, Miami, and Florida State, as well as losing to Louisville in the ACC Tournament. This "recency bias" often affects the selection committee since it makes it seem like a team on the bubble is going in the wrong direction at the most important time of year.

The Mustangs needed to go further in the ACC Tournament to strengthen their case with the selection committee. They beat Syracuse in the first round, but their loss to No. 24 Louisville (62–58) in the second round halted their hopes of getting another "Quad 1" victory. This loss places them at the mercy of the selection committee, rather than guaranteeing a near-automatic selection or penciling them in and off of the bubble.

The Mustangs were outstanding at home this season with a 15–3 record, but they had a lot of trouble on the road. They ended up with a 3–8 record on the road, with a 1–8 record on the road against top-tier teams. The selection committee puts a lot of weight on a team's ability to win on the road, and SMU's lack of "true road" success is a big red flag on its resume.

SMU had a record of 8–10 in the ACC, which put them in 11th place in the league standings. In the past, it has been hard for a team that ended that low in its conference standings to get an at-large bid, especially when there are a lot of other high-major conference teams with greater winning percentages on the "bubble" that finished in the top eight of their Power Four conference standings, which makes the chances of SMU receiving an at-large bid this season very slim.

Numerous bracketologists have placed SMU on the "Last Four In" or "First Four Out" line, putting the team's bid at risk. If teams from high-end mid-major conferences (like the Mountain West, Big East, or Atlantic 10) win the conference tournaments that they weren't expected to win, those teams take up "at-large" spots, which means that bubble teams like SMU may be left out of the tournament.

The overall NCAA tournament resume is worth examining.

NET Ranking (3/12): 37

KenPom Ranking (3/12): 41

ESPN's BPI Ranking (3/12): 42

T-Rank (Barttorvik) (3/12): 41

Evan Miya Ranking (3/12): 40

Quad-1-Record: 4–9

Quad-2-Record: 5–4

Quad-3-Record: 5–0

Quad-4-Record: 6–0

Home Record: 15-2

Away Record: 3-8

Neutral Court Record: 2-2

Here now are the reasons why SMU should be in the NCAA Tournament this March.

SMU should be in the NCAA Tournament because they have solid analytics and a lot of "marquee" wins that not many other bubble teams can match. The Mustangs had a hard spell in late February, but these are the main reasons they should be in the field of 68 due to their strong performance metrics, including advanced analytics that highlight their efficiency, and significant victories over top-ranked teams that bolster their tournament resume.

Even if their conference record isn't great, sophisticated metrics always see SMU as one of the top 40 teams in the country. They have been between 37 and 43 in the NET, which is usually a good spot for an at-large bid.

KenPom and ESPN's BPI, two main analytics sites, say that SMU is a more dangerous team deserving of a tournament bid than its win-loss record shows, mostly because of its dynamic offense, key wins, and lack of quad three and four losses.

The selection committee cares about who you beat, and SMU has a lot of "script-flipping" wins that help their case. They have done well at home, beating North Carolina and Louisville at Moody Coliseum. They also defeated Texas A&M, an SEC team, in overtime, and they went to Starkville and beat Mississippi State in a tough SEC setting.

Frequently, four Quad 1 wins, which are victories against top-ranked opponents, serve as the crucial factor that secures bubble teams a spot in the playoffs. They boast a top-notch, high-octane offense and are one of the most fun and effective offensive teams in the country. They rank 20th in points scored and have been in the top 10 at times this season.

Their "clean" résumé is a big reason why SMU is doing well. In Quadrant 3 and Quadrant 4 games, they were flawless (11–0). The Mustangs didn't lose any games to lower-tier teams, unlike a lot of other bubble teams like Texas or New Mexico. This demonstrates their discipline and consistency against the opponents they should defeat.

If a significant player was missing for a considerable amount of time, the committee could look at a team's performance in a different way. The ACC Tournament and the last several games of the season for SMU were without starting guard B.J. Edwards (ankle). Coach Andy Enfield has stressed that Edwards should be back for the NCAA Tournament. If the committee believes the team's late-season slump was due to this injury, they might "forgive" those losses and grade the team based on how well they played earlier in the year when they were healthy.

Miami of Ohio having lost in its conference tournament, and the fact that the MAC is possibly now a two-bid league does not help SMU's cause. But teams like Texas, Indiana, Santa Clara, and even Cincinnati losing in their conference tournaments helps SMU, as it increases their chances of receiving an invitation to the tournament. Will the Mustangs probably play another 11 seed in the first four games in Dayton? Yes, but they are still projected to make the NCAA Tournament.

Stay up to date with the Mustangs by bookmarking SMU On SI.