How and Why SMU can make the NCAA Tournament

The Mustangs are in a good position to qualify for the NCAA Tournament, unlike last season when they were not chosen.

SMU Mustangs forward Corey Washington. Mandatory Credit: Robert Edwards—Imagn Images | Robert Edwards-Imagn Images

SMU needs to win a game or two but they have put themselves in good shape to be in the NCAA Tournament this year.

According to Bracket Matrix, SMU is projected to be a No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Here are some well-known bracketologists and their projections for the Mustangs in the tournament.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has SMU as a No. 10 seed, playing Kentucky in Buffalo, NY.

CBS Sports' Jerry Palm has the Mustangs as a No. 10 seed playing Villanova in the Midwest region.

Fox Sports’ Mike DeCourcy has SMU as the third No. 10 seed.

USA Today has the Mustangs as a No. 10 seed playing BYU in Oklahoma City.

Here now is a look at the Mustang's tournament resume.

NET Ranking (3/3): 36

KenPom Ranking (3/3): 39

ESPN's BPI Ranking (3/3): 41

T-Rank (Barttorvik) (3/3): 43

Evan Miya Ranking (3/3): 36

Team Rankings (3/3): 38

Quad-1-Record: 4–8

Quad-2-Record: 3–2

Quad-3-Record: 5–0

Quad-4-Record: 7–0

Home Record: 15-2

Away Record: 3-7

Neutral Court Record: 1-1

Record against top 25 NET-ranked teams: 2-4

Record against top 50 NET-ranked teams: 3-5

Record against top 100 NET-ranked teams: 8-10

Under second-year coach Andy Enfield, the Mustangs have constructed a resume that is mostly based on their high-level efficiency and "Quadrant 1" chances in conference play.

SMU's best part of their tournament resume is that they play well even in most losses and rank high in computer rankings. Even though they lost three of their last five games in late February, they remain a top-40 team in several important predictive and results-based metrics. Five of their losses this season have been by four or less points.

In the NET rankings, they have been between 31 and 36, which usually means they are good enough to play in a tournament. Their overall SOS (Strength of Schedule) is ranked No. 58, and their non-conference SOS is ranked No. 20, which shows that they didn't shy away from challenging opposition early in the year. They are near the top of the ACC in a few areas, such as scoring offense (86.2 PPG), assists (17.8 APG), and 3-point shooting (37.9%).

Here are SMU's most impressive wins. They beat North Carolina on January 3, in which they won at home by a decisive 97–83 victory over a Tar Heels squad that was in the top 25. Before that outstanding win, they defeated Texas A&M (Dec. 7) at Arlington, Texas, in an overtime game played at a neutral venue, and the final score was 93–80. They won one of their earlier games of the season at Mississippi State on November 28, by a final score of 87–81 in overtime on the road in SEC territory. They just beat a team in the top 20, Louisville, by ten points, 95-85, on February 17.

They have four Quad 1 wins and three Quad 2 wins, which gives them a strong base of high-quality wins. Quad 1 wins refer to victories against top-ranked teams, while Quad 2 wins are against teams that are also competitive but not as highly ranked. The Mustangs have one of the most balanced scoring attacks in the country, with five players who score in double figures on average.

They haven't lost to any "bad" teams (no Quad 3 or Quad 4 losses), which means they've done their job against weaker teams. The only major concern is that they are currently on a two-game losing streak (losses to Cal and Stanford) and likely need a strong showing in the ACC Tournament to fully secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament or win their last two regular season scheduled games against Miami and Florida State.

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