OPINION: Gamecocks Need To Accomplish Two Tasks In Order To Defeat NC State In The Final Four

Author:
Andrew Lyon
Apr 05, 2024

When talking about Dawn Staley and the South Carolina Gamecocks, who will square off against the NC State Wolfpack later tonight in the NCAA Women's Final Four, the question of 'what does the team have to do to win?' takes on a bit of a different meaning. For most teams, the question is more literal in terms of just trying to leave the court with a victory, but for squads who are as elite as the Gamecocks, the question morphs into something like 'What do they have to do to keep the game from coming down to the wire?'.

To the Wolfpack's credit, they didn't stumble their way to the Final Four. To get to this point, they defeated several former national championship-winning programs and prominent blue bloods in the sport, like the Tennessee Lady Volunteers, Stanford Cardinals, and Texas Longhorns. If you're a full-believer in the phrase 'The Numbers Don't Lie,' the gap between Carolina and NC State isn't as significant as one might think, with one team lurking not too far behind the other in almost every category you can think of. However, there's one significant discrepancy where the Gamecocks could separate themselves in this matchup: the offensive glass.

The Wolfpack are proficient in defensive rebounding percentage, capitalizing on 75.1% of their defensive rebounding opportunities, ranking 13th nationally per WarrenNolan.com. Conversely, NC State is tied for 223rd nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, converting on 29.4% of those chances. In the past five weeks alone, the Wolfpack have played three games in a road environment or on a neutral floor against teams who ranked in the Top 25 in offensive rebounding percentage and only won the offensive rebounding battle once (at Duke on February 25th). Despite losing on the offensive glass against Duke and Stanford in the ACC and NCAA Tournaments, respectively, in March, State won both games. A glaring reason why? Porous three-point shooting. Neither the Blue Devils nor the Cardinals made more than 20 percent of their three-point attempts in a losing effort.

Taking this back to tonight's game, if Kamilla Cardoso and Ashlyn Watkins can wreak havoc on the offensive glass tonight, and South Carolina's guards can just be adequate in terms of perimeter shooting, I think the Gamecocks will be fine. If the opposite happens, we could see this Final Four battle come down to the final few possessions.

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