Stanford Draws Steep Odds in Showdown with Florida State

Stanford has been the underdog for most of the season. Is this the week they break through?

Oct 11, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles safety Earl Little Jr. (0) and defensive back Ja'Bril Rawls (11) celebrate after an interception during the first half of the game against the Pittsburgh Panthers at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

On Thursday night, Stanford women's soccer took down Florida State, 2-1, giving the second-ranked Cardinal their second victory over a top-10 opponent in less than a week. Women's volleyball also took down FSU, 3-1, the same night. On Saturday, the Stanford football program will look to add to the torment, but the odds will be stacked against them.

The Cardinal enter this weekend's matchup on The Farm as +17.5 point underdogs according to FanDuel, despite Florida State having lost three games in a row after a 3-0 start to their season. The over/under for this one is set at 54.5 points, so at least Stanford is getting some credit for their offense getting going in recent weeks.

In order for both of those to hit, we're looking at a final score around 37-18. The two programs have never played one another, so there isn't any history to pull from to deem one program having a hidden edge in this one. The one potential edge for the Cardinal could be that this one will be held on The Farm, where they have collected both of their wins this season.

That said, neither of Stanford's wins this season has been as impressive as FSU's victory against No. 6 Alabama in their opening contest, with the Seminoles coming out ahead 31-17. In fact, both of Stanford's wins have been fairly tight victories, beating Boston College 30-20, and San José State 30-29.

What's at Stake for Stanford, FSU

Sep 27, 2025; Stanford, California, USA; Stanford Cardinal linebacker Tevarua Tafiti (11) reacts during the second quarter against the San Jose State Spartans at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images | Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

Florida State could be playing for their coach's job in the long haul, because an 0-3 stretch, especially after a 2-10 season last year, is bad, but taking a loss to a Stanford program that has finished 3-9 for four straight seasons in a game where they're favored by more than two touchdowns could be the icing on the cake.

With an improbable win, Stanford could all of a sudden have a shot at a bowl game with a new 3-4 record. They'd have a game against Pitt, which could be deemed a win at home, another against a struggling North Carolina program, and then the matchup with Cal could determine their fate.

While Stanford dropped their game at SMU 34-10, the matchup was a lot closer than the final score would have you believe. The Cardinal were in the red zone with roughly seven minutes left, trailing by two touchdowns, and they made it into the end zone, only for yet another penalty to be called which wiped the play away.

Not long after, Ben Gulbranson threw a pick-six that effectively ended the game. Stanford kept it close until that interception, on the road, without their best performance. In front of the home crowd, with a similar effort (and fewer penalties), perhaps the outcome is different against Florida State.

Saturday's game is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. (PT).

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