Stanford Football Opens as Massive Underdogs vs. SMU

The Stanford Cardinal are entering the toughest stretch of their 2025 football season, following last week's bye. On the season they're 2-3, notching wins against Boston College and San José State, but they also lost a heartbreaker to Hawaii, and were routed by BYU and Virginia.

Coming into this weekend's matchup at SMU, the Cardinal will be fighting uphill. Last year the Mustangs came to The Farm and left with a 40-10 victory. This year's program may not quite be of that same caliber, but they can still move the ball down the field in a hurry.

Over at FanDuel, they have Stanford as huge underdogs, entering the week +18.5 on the spread. That is basically asking people if they will lose by more or less that 18.5 points. They've also set the over/under for the game at 55.5 points. In essence, they're projecting a final score around 37-18.

On the one hand, that's still an improvement over last year. At the same time, Stanford isn't looking for moral victories this season. They want wins on the field too. The goal of the program is to build for the future, but at the same time, getting over the hump of four straight 3-9 campaigns would also do wonders for the program moving forward.

Sep 27, 2025; Stanford, California, USA; Stanford Cardinal quarterback Ben Gulbranson (15) throws the ball during the first quarter against the San Jose State Spartans at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images | Stan Szeto-Imagn Images

While SMU is the better team on paper, we all just witnessed formerly No.7 ranked Penn State drop a game to the previously winless UCLA Bruins—a team that hadn't led at any point throughout the 2025 season entering that game. The Nittany Lions are now unranked after entering the year as the No. 2 team in the country.

In other words, anything can happen in college football. Perhaps that upset can lead to some added confidence for the Cardinal entering this week's matchup.

Stanford is also coming off a bye week, which will give them an extra week to prepare for SMU both offensively and defensively. In order for Stanford to have a shot in this one, they're going to need some big time performances from their defense in order to at least limit the Mustangs offense enough to keep this one close.

Sep 20, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Stanford Cardinal running back Micah Ford (20) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown against the Virginia Cavaliers during the second quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

If the Cardinal can hold them under 30, that could be their key to success. TCU took them down in a 35-24 game on September 20, while MO State held them to 28 in defeat. It can apparently be done. SMU's only other loss this season came in double overtime against Baylor, 48-45. It's much less likely that Stanford comes out ahead in a shootout, though the offense has been much better in recent weeks.

Following Saturday's 9 a.m. (PT) matchup with SMU, the Cardinal will return to The Farm to face off against Florida State on October 18, and then head back to the east coast to take on Miami on October 25.

These next three contests are the toughest stretch of the season, but if they can come out with one win of the bunch, that would be a huge step in the right direction as the program continues to build for the future.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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