Syracuse faces a tough task in North Carolina when trying to make it two wins in a row

The schedule offers little time for Syracuse to celebrate Saturday night’s home win over Notre Dame. The Orange (13-9, 4-5 ACC) have already traveled to Chapel Hill, where they will take on #16 North Carolina. The Tar Heels (17-4, 5-3) have shaken off a stretch of three losses in four games by winning their last three, highlighted by a win at ranked Virginia.

SU had their best offensive game in a couple weeks on Saturday, hanging 86 points behind superior performances from Nate Kingz and J.J. Starling while Donnie Freeman came off the bench. The squad’s defense was better in stretches than it had been in their previous two games, but still showed some shortcomings.

And one of their bigger issues on defense is one of the areas where North Carolina is strongest on offense.

The Orange need to clean up their interior defense in a hurry

Syracuse’s 2-point defense was exceptional to start the season, but its effectiveness has waned in ACC play. The Orange have allowed conference foes to shoot 55.6 percent on 2-point field goals, including giving up over 63 percent in their last three games.

The Tar Heels make a lot of hay inside the arc, shooting 59.6 percent on 2-point field goals in ACC play and 58.5 percent over the full season. Their starting bigs, freshman Caleb Wilson and junior seven-footer Henri Veesaar, lead the way inside.

Wilson paces the team with 20.0 points per game with Veesaar close behind at 16.8 points per outing. Both shoot over 73 percent on shots classified as “close 2’s” at T-Rank and are excellent rebounders on both ends of the court, combing for 19 boards a game. Veesaar adds a soft touch from the perimeter, as well, having dropped in 27 3-pointers at a 45.8 percent clip.

Seth Trimble provides solid scoring and some playmaking on the perimeter. Trimble has returned from an injury that cost him nine games earlier in the season and is averaging nearly 15 points and three assists per game in that time while shooting 43.3 percent from long range.

The rest of the Tar Heel rotation has been in a bit of flux. Derek Dixon has surfaced in the last four games to provide 3-point shooting (10-for-21) and some playmaking (15 assists). Luka Bogavac was demoted to the bench three weeks ago, but has shot 37.5 percent from 3-point range and reached double figures three times in the last five games.

Regardless of the players on the outer fringes of the rotation, UNC has shot the ball well and taken care of it exceptionally so all season, ranking in the top 15 in the country in turnover rate. They also play an active style, leading to collecting offensive rebounds and drawing fouls.

The North Carolina defense is not as good as their offense, but still make for a tough foe

The Tar Heels’ defense is similarly effective to their offense. After a couple weeks of struggling to defend after New Year’s, they have made moves toward righting their ship in the last three games.

Over the course of the season, the most consistent shortcoming of the Carolina defense is they have not forced many turnovers. The Orange have done a better job protecting the ball in their last three games, but will need to turn their opportunities into points.

Facing a very capable Tar Heel offense, SU is likely to end up in a game headed toward shootout territory. They will need to play a similar style of offensive basketball that they did in Saturday’s victory, working the ball around selflessly to get good shots for players where they are capable of scoring.

It is a tough ask for the Orange to defeat North Carolina in a game best suited to what their opponents do best. SU’s interior defense will have to be very good against a team with height, skill, and athleticism. It is probably too much to expect them to win.

North Carolina 83, Syracuse 74.

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