ESPN Bowl Projections Spell Disappointment for Texas A&M

The Texas A&M Aggies' main objective for the 2025 season should be exceedingly obvious: to break out of the purgatory they've found themselves in for so long now.

Since Johnny Manziel led them to an 11-2 record in 2012, the Aggies have won seven-nine games in 10 of 11 full seasons (not counting the 2020 COVID season, when they went 9-1 and just barely missed the College Football Playoff). The only exception came in 2022, when they went 5-7 after being ravaged by injuries.

With a talented roster full of returning players and impactful transfers, the Aggies could not only break out of that purgatory, but potentially become a CFP darkhorse. However, not all analysts feel this way.

ESPN Analyst Projects Familiar Texas A&M Bowl Destination

Dec 27, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Texas A&M Aggies head coach Mike Elko reacts against the Southern California Trojans in the second half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

In his preseason bowl projections, ESPN analyst Kyle Bonagura predicted A&M to end up in the Texas Bowl (Dec. 27, 8:15 p.m. CT at NRG Stadium in Houston) against BYU. The Aggies have been to the Texas Bowl three times in the past decade - losing to Kansas State 33-28 in 2016, defeating Oklahoma State 24-21 in 2019 and losing to Oklahoma State 31-23 in 2023.

The Texas Bowl is one of the SEC's "Tier Two" bowls, for lack of a better term. Essentially, it's one of six bowls that picks its SEC team after the CFP and the Citrus Bowl get their pick, which usually means those teams are in the eight-win range. Unranked LSU was selected to play in the Texas Bowl last year after going 8-4 in the regular season.

It probably goes without saying, but that'd be an all-too-familiar fate for A&M. Even if it's for a solid bowl game, going to Houston for the fourth-time in the past decade would be pretty disappointing.

Luckily, Mark Schlabach, Bonagura's colleague, projected a slightly bette fate for the Aggies, sending them to the Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31, 2 p.m. CT at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla.) for the first time ever. As previously mentioned, the Citrus Bowl gets the first pick of SEC teams that did not make the CFP, so A&M would likely be around the nine-win range if selected. South Carolina, which entered the game ranked No. 14 after going 9-3 in the regular season, earned the invite last year.

The Citrus Bowl would be a step up for the Aggies, but would it be enough of a step up? That would likely depend on how they get there.