2023 Baseball Tournament: College Baseball Regional Predictions
Our 16 Regional groupings are set and the 2023 NCAA baseball tournament kicks off Friday. Winners of this round advance to the Super Regionals, where teams battle for eight coveted spots in the College World Series in Omaha, Neb.
Last year, both finalists – Ole Miss and Oklahoma – were No. 3 seeds in their respective Regional bracket. Might there be another dark horse poised to make a run? Let's take a look at each group and predict who we think comes out of each region.
Hosts below are noted in parentheses.
Winston-Salem Regional (Wake Forest)
1. Wake Forest
2. Maryland
3. Northeastern
4. George Mason
The overall No. 1 seed in this tournament is rightfully so and will make for a very tough out. Led by a trio of terrific starting pitchers and a shutdown closer, the Demon Deacons do draw a few tough offenses in their region, namely Maryland and Northeastern. However, Wake is large and by far the best team in their own group; they may even be the best team in the nation right now.
The pick: Wake Forest
Tuscaloosa Regional (Alabama)
1. Alabama
2. Boston College
3. Troy
4. Nicholls
Despite losing their head coach to a gambling investigation, the Tide continues to roll. Alabama hosts a very solid Boston College team (who many argue could have hosted their own Regional) and a strong Troy team from the Sun Belt. BC doesn't quite have the hitting chops and Troy is mistake-prone in the field, meaning this one probably goes to the host.
(I promise this article won't just be a list of reasons why the hosts will win.)
The pick: Alabama
Stanford Regional (Stanford)
1. Stanford
2. Texas A&M
3. Cal State Fullerton
4. San Jose State
Talk about a tough group, there's no real breaks in this regional, with No. 4 seed San Jose State even being the Mountain West champion. However, this group really comes down to the top three teams. Texas A&M struggled at the plate this season, but recently picked up momentum and nearly made a run at the SEC title as the 10 seed. Momentum is everything and the top seed Stanford is prone to give up runs.
The pick: Texas A&M
Coral Gables Regional (Miami)
1. Miami
2. Texas
3. Louisiana
4. Maine
South Florida this entire sports calendar has done nothing but prove those who write them off out. Though what the Heat, Panthers, and Miami Hurricanes basketball program do in their respective league means nothing to the Diamond 'Canes, this Miami team is strong and has a lot of momentum on their side. A streaky Texas team was bounced in the first two games of the Big 12 tournament and Louisiana faltered down the stretch.
The postseason is about momentum.
The pick: Miami
Baton Rouge Regional (LSU)
1. LSU
2. Oregon State
3. Sam Houston State
4. Tulane
Oregon State is one of the better No. 2 seeds in this tournament, but they travel farther than any other team at over 2,500 miles. LSU is severely under-seeded in the No. 5 spot and still boasts the nation's best roster. Their lone weakness is the bullpen – a unit frequently unnecessary for the Tigers thanks to a dominant offense.
The pick: LSU
Lexington Regional (Kentucky)
1. Kentucky
2. West Virginia
3. Indiana
4. Ball State
Kentucky is another under-seeded team who went 20-4 outside the SEC against the ninth-toughest non-conference schedule. It's unfortunate that they would have to play the winner of the Baton Rouge Regional to make the College World Series, otherwise the 'Cats would be a great pick to make a deep run.
I digress. UK pulls two tough teams in West Virginia (who disappointed in the Big 12 Tournament) and Indiana (the Big Ten's top-rated team, per RPI). Both are good, but Kentucky ranks second in RPI.
The pick: Kentucky
Clemson Regional (Clemson)
1. Clemson
2. Tennessee
3. Charlotte
4. Lipscomb
Do you flip a coin between Clemson and Tennessee? The Vols are not only one of the strongest No. 2 seeds in the tournament, but one of the strongest teams, period. They travel to face a blistering-hot Clemson team who is 21-10 against top-50 teams this year. Tennessee is just 4-12 on the road this season. It's a tough call, but the location of this Regional matters.
The pick: Clemson
Auburn Regional (Auburn)
1. Auburn
2. Southern Miss
3. Samford
4. Penn
Auburn has by far the weakest resume among the 16 hosts. They rank lower in RPI – which was cited as the deciding factor in seeding – than non-hosts Dallas Baptist and Boston College. Luckily for them, they don't draw a murderers' row of opponents. Southern Miss emerged victorious from the Sun Belt, but has a real deficiency on offense. In fact, all four teams lack in batting, making this a real toss-up.
However, legendary USM coach Scott Barry retires at the end of the season, meaning this team is going to play their hearts out for him.
The pick: Southern Miss
Nashville Regional (Vanderbilt)
1. Vanderbilt
2. Oregon
3. Xavier
4. Eastern Illinois
Few hosts drew a more friendly group of opponents than Vanderbilt. Oregon, the Pac-12 champion, ranks third in RPI among Pac-12 teams here and has one of the weakest resumes among No. 2 seeds. Them and Xavier combine for a 9-21 record against top-50 competition, a mark outdone by Vanderbilt themselves (20-13). The confidence level is high for this one.
The pick: Vanderbilt
Stillwater Regional (Oklahoma State)
1. Oklahoma State
2. Dallas Baptist
3. Washington
4. Oral Roberts
From one of the most clear-cut Regionals to one of the murkiest. Though high enough in RPI, many would argue Oklahoma State was the second-most deserving of a hosting spot in this regional (looking at you, Dallas Baptist). This Region has the best average RPI among its members, thanks to Oral Roberts being large and by far the strongest No. 4 seed.
With everything so up in the air, one team has to be opportune. It's time to get different.
The pick: Washington
Fayetteville Regional (Arkansas)
1. Arkansas
2. TCU
3. Arizona
4. Santa Clara
You can read more about the Fayetteville Regional here. Ultimately, this comes down to momentum. Arizona is an interesting No. 3 seed, but they hold a 4-14 record on the road, and they travel a long way for this game. In my opinion, this comes down to Arkansas and TCU. Beyond that, it's about momentum, and TCU has some of the most momentum in the country.
The pick: TCU
Terre Haute Regional (Indiana State)
1. Indiana State
2. Iowa
3. North Carolina
4. Wright State
Indiana State was a fun story and it's great to see them host a regional. However, they're the worst non-four seed in batting in this entire tournament and have a 2-9 record against top-50 competition. Iowa boasts the most talented pitching staff and have three strong starters – a must for this postseason structure. UNC is down their best player, all-ACC outfielder Vance Honeycutt, who will not play in the Regional due to an injury.
It's not often we get two non-hosts facing in the Super Regional, but that's the route we're going this year.
The pick: Iowa
Charlottesville Regional (Virginia)
1. Virginia
2. East Carolina
3. Oklahoma
4. Army
A better showing in their conference tournament might have landed East Carolina a hosting spot. Instead, they travel to face Virginia, a team who's 31-4 at home on the season. Like recent UVA teams, they're led by strong pitching. But this year's team also boasts one of the better offenses in the tournament. Oklahoma finds themselves in the same position as last year, but the Sooners lost most of what carried them to Omaha in 2022.
The pick: Virginia
Conway Regional (Coastal Carolina)
1. Coastal Carolina
2. Duke
3. UNC Wilmington
4. Rider
There's not many pushovers in this group; even No. 4 seed Rider stands inside the top 100 in RPI. UNC Wilmington makes for an intriguing No. 3 seed after having taken a series from TCU earlier this year and boasting a respectable 6-10 record against top-50 competition.
But this region comes down to its top two teams. At this juncture, Duke has shown more than the regional host Coastal thanks to a 16-11 record against top-50 opponents. Duke also boasts one of the best pitching rotations in the tournament.
The pick: Duke
Gainesville Regional (Florida)
1. Florida
2. UConn
3. Texas Tech
4. Florida A&M
Unlike its basketball counterpart, the NCAA baseball tournament sees a lot of top seeds advance. The Super Regionals and CWS bring a lot more Cinderellas and surprises. Florida pulls a trappy group, with UConn being ranked 25th in RPI and Texas Tech being 17-9 outside of the Big 12. However, the Gators are just too strong in every phase of the game to not play into Round 2.
The pick: Florida
Columbia Regional (South Carolina)
1. South Carolina
2. Campbell
3. NC State
4. Central Connecticut
Like LSU and Kentucky, South Carolina was seriously under-seeded compared to their RPI (sixth). The Gamecocks dropped 11 of their final 14 games this season, meaning they do not come into this tournament with much momentum. Their chief opposition includes Campbell, the top-hitting team in the tournament, and NC State, a last-four in team that's 23rd in RPI.
Though South Carolina doesn't have the momentum, they do have the proven track record of beating top-50 opponents (where they're 19-14). Their pitching is too strong and batting is good enough to beat these other teams.
The pick: South Carolina
Want to join the discussion? Click here to become a member of the Killer Frogs message board community today!
Follow KillerFrogs on Twitter to stay up to date on all the latest TCU news! Follow KillerFrogs on Facebook and Instagram as well. Download the KillerFrogs app on Google Play or in the Apple App Store.