KillerFrogs 2022 College Football Top 25 Rankings
The preseason AP Top 25 poll is still a month away. With the dog days of summer and the doldrums of the college football offseason waning, this is a perfect time to drop a totally-not-contentious top 25.
The goal of this ranking is to project season's end rather than the initial Top 25. Let's dive right into it.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
A returning Heisman winner. The best defensive player in football. The best head coach in college football history. Unfortunately for the rest of the college football world, this isn't the year to bet against Alabama. So, I'm not. Not much explanation required.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State is on track to set offensive records this coming season. They return Heisman finalist CJ Stroud, the best receiving group in the country– led by Jaxon Smith-Njigba– and one of the nation's top backs in TreyVeon Henderson. Defensively, they'll improve under new defensive coordinator Jim Knowels.
There's not really another team you can project in the top two. It's Alabama, it's Ohio State, and it's everyone else.
3. Georgia Bulldogs
According to sportsbooks, it's Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, and everyone else; hell, they even have a prop you can bet on with one the former three being given a 78% chance to win the National Championship. The Dawgs lose a ton on defense to the NFL Draft, but return Nolan Smith at linebacker and many of their skill players on offense.
Kirby Smart is in the elite coach conversation and, thanks to a generous schedule, Georgia will be staring down 11-1 or 12-0 this season.
4. Utah Utes
Utah brings back most of its Rose Bowl team last year, but namely star QB Cameron Rising and 1,000-yard back Tavion Thomas. With Florida, Oregon, and USC on the schedule, Utah will have the resume come season's end to make a push for the Playoff.
The Utes finished 12th in the final CFP Poll of 2021 at 10-4 and an improvement on that could vault them into this year's final four.
5. Clemson Tigers
If you were sick of Clemson, last year was your year. Even with both coordinators leaving town, the Tigers are going to be the top team in the ACC and make a run at the CFP. They project to have one of the best defenses in the country, led by All-American candidates Myles Murphy and Bryan Breese on the defensive line.
Even if DJ Uialagelei doesn't work out, freshman Cade Klubnik has potential to jump right in and dominate. This is a bet on one of those two QBs working out, which is a strong bet to make.
6. NC State Wolfpack
Now that the chalk is out of the way, let's get into the good stuff. The Wolfpack are primed to be the surprise team of 2022. They return 82% of their production from a year ago– a top 10 mark nationally– including star QB Devin Leary and most of their top-15 defense from 2021.
NC State plays a favorable schedule and the key is handling Clemson as early as they do. A loss there and running the table afterwards could keep NC State in the Playoff conversation. Phil Steele ranks Leary the seventh-best QB in the country, their secondary third best, and defensive line 19th best.
11 wins is absolutely in the cards this season.
7. Michigan Wolverines
A favorable schedule can work for or against a team like Michigan. Since they handle Ohio State at the end of the year, even an 11-1 or 10-2 Michigan team that loses by more than 10 to the Buckeyes could slide down the rankings.
Most of the heart and soul of their defense leaves for the NFL, but Michigan returns one of the top offensive lines in the country. Also rising for them is junior Blake Corum, who rushed for nearly 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns as the team's secondary back.
8. Tennessee Volunteers
The combination of Hendon Hooker and Cedrick Tillman might just be the best QB-WR duo in the SEC this coming season. Hooker tossed 31 touchdowns and only three picks and is one of the sweetheart longshot Heisman picks for this coming season.
In this instance, strength of schedule helps Tennessee's case– their fifth-ranking nationally would make a 10-2 record extremely interesting. Georgia always stands in the way of the CFP, but the Vols have a chance to make statements against Pitt, LSU, and Alabama this season.
Win or lose, Tennessee is going to score points by the truckload.
9. BYU Cougars
I genuinely have no idea why BYU isn't being talked about more this year. They return dynamic QB Jaren Hall and 85% of their production (first!!!) from a team that won 10 games a season ago. To complement Hall are BYU's top two yardage receivers and four of their top five rushers.
The Cougars get a shot at Baylor, Oregon, Notre Dame, and Arkansas this season. Just two wins from that group (spoiler: all of which I have ranked in the top 25) would warrant a discussion. The best part is, BYU handles two of them at home and one in neutral Las Vegas.
BYU is going to win a lot of football games and end the year in the national conversation.
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
While Marcus Freeman is hailed a home run hire for Notre Dame, the Irish have a lot of replacing to do, particularly at QB. Ultimately, they're going to be just fine and win plenty of games. But there's question marks around both Tyler Buchner and Drew Pyne, neither of which as emerged as a clear-cut starter.
Either one sits behind of the nation's top OLs (top-10 per Phil Steele) and as All American Michael Mayer at tight end to lean on. Defensively, this team adds Brandon Joseph– one of the best playmaking safeties in the nation. However, draws at Ohio State, vs. BYU, vs. Clemson, and at USC make for a tough schedule draw.
But, with the strength of schedule comes leniency that a 9-3 Notre Dame team fights for a top-10 finish.
11. Oklahoma Sooners
Under Brent Venables, Oklahoma is going to be perfectly fine. Dillon Gabriel is a massive get in the transfer portal and don't expect this team to take a massive step back. They still rank inside the top 10 in FPI and SP+ and draw a favorable schedule (41st nationally).
12. Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M is still a year away from being really dangerous in the SEC, but as long as a QB pans out– be it Max Johnson or Haynes King– the Aggies are going to win football games. They have resume-bolsters against Miami FL and Appalachian State (don't overlook that one), Florida, and the usual SEC West gauntlet.
13. Texas Longhorns
Horns fans will be upset about who's right above them on the list. Non-Horns fans will be upset at how highly ranked Texas is.
I'll stand by it– Texas is going to be too explosive on offense behind Quinn Ewers, Bijan Robinson, Xavier Worthy, and Isaiah Neyor to not be a top-15 team. I mean it. Just put a pin in this one and feel free to berate me if they finish 7-6.
14. Cincinnati Bearcats
Compared to the highs of 2021, this seems like a moderately disappointing season for Cincy. Given what they lost to the NFL, though, this is a success. Luke Fickell is one of the nation's top coaches and the defense returns plenty of talent. Phil Steele ranks the Bearcats' linebacking corps fifth-best and defensive backs 31st. QB is a question, but there's a lot of young talent ready to assume the helm.
15. Arkansas Razorbacks
The biggest returners for Arkansas: star QB KJ Jefferson and four of their top five OL starters from last year. I picked the Razorbacks to finish second in the West in my SEC predictions, something I really stand by. Tough pulls against Cincinnati, Alabama, and Texas A&M all happen early and at home (or neutral), giving Arkansas a chance to run the table from October 8 on.
16. Baylor Bears
We have two seasons under Dave Aranda– one two-win season and one conference championship. I choose to believe the latter is stickier given the development of his team and willingness to adapt to modern college football. Athlon Sports picks Baylor to repeat while Phil Steele (and my own Big 12 predictions) slot them second.
There's a lot of talent on this roster and starter Blake Shapen has already shown the ability to be a playmaker.
17. Purdue Boilermakers
I stand by my Big Ten prediction that Purdue wins the West. Aidan O'Connell– the second-best Big Ten QB behind Stroud– returns after passing for over 3,700 yards and 28 TDs. The Boilermakers also return players where it counts: on defense and on the offensive line (fifth-most returning roster production in the Big Ten). Should they nab a win opening week against Penn State, Purdue could enter Week 8 at 7-0.
18. Oregon Ducks
Oregon's saving grace is an athletic defense with a pair of freak linebackers returning– sophomore Noah Sewell and RS freshman Justin Flowe. Offensively, they have questions that need answered and how new head coach Dan Lanning directs the team is TBD. However, Oregon is still near the top of odds tables to win the Pac-12 and for good reason.
19. Kentucky Wildcats
Don't underestimate the loss of a good offensive coordinator in Liam Coen, but UK should remain nationally competitive under Mark Stoops. Star QB Will Levis looks to capitalize on his 2,800 yards passing and 24 TDs from a season ago. Key transfers like Tayvion Robinson should make splashes from the start and the Cats will remain solid on defense (31st in points per drive allowed).
20. Kansas State Wildcats
When people smarter than me take a firm stand to warn me about an up-and-coming team, I believe them. Bill Connelly of ESPN has brought up K-State as a potential party crasher this season on more than one occasion and on more than one platform. They play a favorable schedule and return All American Deuce Vaughn to run in a conference that, in general, has trouble defending the run.
21. Penn State Nittany Lions
In each year of his career at Sean Clifford, he's regressed in QB rating and completion percentage. While that's not ideal, he's also had a tough run of weird circumstances around his season (COVID, injuries, etc.). This year, there's no excuse for him.
Returning is star receiver Parker Washington and they bring in standout WKU transfer Mitchell Tinsley. The Nittany Lions lose a lot from their iron-clad defense, but hired Manny Diaz to call the shots.
22. Miami (FL) Hurricanes
When betting on teams' seasons in college football, you should look for two things: a good head coach and a playmaking QB. Miami has both. They hired Mario Cristobal away from Oregon– who is already dominating the recruiting trail– and return star-in-the-making QB Tyler Van Dyke. They have tough stints against Texas A&M and Clemson, but otherwise play a favorable schedule.
23. Fresno State Bulldogs
Jake Haener's decision to stay in Fresno is monumental to the team. They also hired familiar face Jeff Tedford, who was the Fresno State head coach from 2017-19, where he won 10 games twice and only stepped away for health reasons. Another trick up their sleeve: a very good and very looked-over group of receivers (ranked seventh! by Phil Steele) led by Jalen Cooper.
24. Appalachian State Mountaineers
Death, taxes, and Appalachian State gracing the AP Poll. In three of the last four seasons, the Mountaineers were ranked inside the top 15, finishing 19th in 2020. App State has a shot at UNC to open the season and at Texas A&M Week 2 before making a run at the strong Sun Belt. Chase Brice is one of the best QBs in the Sun Belt and head coach Shawn Clark won 10 games in his inaugural season in Boone.
25. Michigan State Spartans
When Heisman finalist Kenneth Walker III was taken out of games last year, Michigan State struggled (see: at Ohio State). Another offseason for Payton Thorne and top target Jayden Reed should prove to be fruitful for an offense that struggled to keep up in the passing game at times.
The biggest Achilles heel for this team: a defensive secondary that returns four starters, but ranked 103rd in explosive pass plays a season ago (again, see: at Ohio State). Their 2022 schedule warrants eight wins for this team anyway.
Just missed the cut: Pitt, Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, Minnesota, UCF, San Jose State
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