Texas Tech Looking to Defeat Alabama to Advance to the Sweet 16
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How to watch, listen, and what to know about this game.
Match Up: No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders (23-10 ) vs. No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (24-9)
Date/Time: Sunday, March 22, at 9:45 PM EST
Where: Tampa, FL's Benchmark International Arena
Radio: 950 AM/95.7 FM, Texas Tech Sports Network; TV: TBS
The Red Raiders' and Crimson Tide's resumes.
Texas Tech’s NCAA Tournament Resume
NET Ranking: 19
T-Rank (Barttorvik): 12
KenPom Ranking: 19
BPI Ranking (ESPN): 19
Home Record: 14-2
Away Record: 5-5
Neutral Court Record: 4-3
Quad-1-Record: 7–9
Quad-2-Record: 6–1
Quad-3-Record: 7–0
Quad-4-Record: 3–0
Alabama’s NCAA Tournament Resume
NET Ranking: 18
T-Rank (Barttorvik): 18
KenPom Ranking: 17
BPI Ranking (ESPN): 16
Home Record: 12-3
Away Record: 7-3
Neutral Court Record: 5-3
Quad-1-Record: 7–7
Quad-2-Record: 10–2
Quad-3-Record: 5–0
Quad-4-Record: 2–0
Both teams are evenly matched according to the metrics.
Alabama scores the most points in the country (91.7 PPG). Their analytics provide them with a slight edge in a high-possession game where they can use their high scoring output to beat their opponents. They depend on Labaron Philon Jr. to speed things up and make the floor open up, as he is also the leading scorer for the Crimson Tide.
Texas Tech is one of the top shooting teams in the country. They are 3rd in the country in 3-point %, and Texas Tech makes a better percentage of three-point shots than the Crimson Tide, even though Alabama shoots more of them per game. Analytics show that Texas Tech has a slight mathematical advantage on each trip down the floor if it can limit Alabama's offensive possessions.
Both teams have made big adjustments to their rosters that have actually moved their analytical profiles closer together. Alabama is playing without standout Aden Holloway, who is currently suspended. His absence has made their rotation shrink, as seven players only played 20 or more minutes in their game versus Hofstra, and it has pushed them to rely more on their size inside, where Aiden Sherrell offers them an edge with Texas Tech's JT Toppin not playing due to injury.
Texas Tech losing Toppin, a star forward, to injury has really hurt their Final Four possibilities. Since his injury, the Red Raiders have increasingly relied on their outside game. This injury limited their scoring in the paint but raised their "variance" from the three-point line. The result makes them a risky "boom-or-bust" squad that analytics have a hard time determining if they are favorites to defeat Alabama.
Alabama has the better seed and can score in more ways than the Red Raiders, but Texas Tech's outstanding 3-point defense, which is on par with teams like Tennessee, which does an impressive job of limiting opponents' made threes, is the perfect analytical response to Alabama's "shoot-first" style of play.
Perimeter variance will determine the outcome of this game. If Texas Tech makes 12 or more three-pointers, they will probably win their game against Alabama. If Alabama controls the offensive glass, where their bigs on paper have an advantage, they will likely win, as it will create more "second-chance" opportunities.
Game Prediction
Both teams have a key player not playing in this game. Although the metrics give Alabama a slight edge, the Red Raiders shoot well from beyond the arc and slow down the Crimson Tide guards just enough to secure a three-point win and advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
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Ryan Kay is a journalist who graduated from Michigan State in 2003 and is passionate about covering college sports and enjoys writing features and articles covering various collegiate teams. He has worked as an editor at Go Joe Bruin and has been a contributor for Longhorns Wire and Busting Brackets. He is a contributor for Texas Tech On SI.