Score Prediction for Texas Tech vs. Oregon in the Orange Bowl
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The No. 4-seed Texas Tech Red Raiders are set to face their biggest challenge yet: The No. 5-seed Oregon Ducks. Oregon advanced to the Orange Bowl after a 51-34 win over the No. 12-seed James Madison Dukes.
Oregon was one of the best teams in the country despite missing out on the Big 12 Championship Game. The Ducks finished the regular season 11-1 with a loss to the Indiana Hoosiers in Eugene, Ore. They recorded wins over USC, Washington, and Iowa, as well as an early-season win against Penn State on White Out night in Happy Valley.
The advanced numbers are excellent for Oregon, proving the Ducks to be a fearsome opponent. They finished second in game control, third in ESPN FPI (25.2), strength of record, and net adjusted EPA per play (+0.24), and 13th in net success rate (+6.7%).
Playoff Game Week 🍊#WreckEm | #CFBPlayoff pic.twitter.com/VH7kJsY00B
— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) December 28, 2025
The Red Raiders have not faced a team as potent as the Ducks this season. If Texas Tech wants to win a national title, this is the caliber of opponent they will have to not only face but beat on that quest. That makes the Orange Bowl a crucial test for Texas Tech.
While the 34-point game from the Dukes has raised some skepticism about the Ducks, the advanced numbers suggest that Oregon's performance was stronger than that. They had the best net success rate of the first round of the College Football Playoff, which is to be expected against the lowest-seeded team in the tournament.
📊🏈DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD
— parker fleming (@statsowar) December 22, 2025
Net Success Rates in Round 1 of Playoffs pic.twitter.com/qY9tBcZolH
Oregon's defense has been strong all season, ranking eighth in adjusted EPA/play (-0.15). They have performed favorably in every phase of the game, excelling both against the run, in coverage, and in pass rush, with PFF grades of over 84.0 in all three areas.
Safety Dillon Thieneman, a transfer from Purdue, has excelled in coverage, playing in both the box and in a free safety role. His elite 90.5 PFF coverage grade ranks 13th among players with at least 50 coverage snaps and fifth among safeties.
Alongside cornerback Jadon Canady, the two stifle passing games while Teitum Tuioti, Matayo Uiagalelei, and A'Mauri Washington dominate at the line of scrimmage. The Red Raiders' offense has been inconsistent, making this a critical test amid a playoff run.
As for the Ducks' offense, the challenge will be for Tech's defense to maintain its form against a team with as many options as Oregon. Potential first-round pick Dante Moore has shown poise under center all season as a first-time starter, and he has playmakers like wide receiver Dakorien Moore and tight ends Kenyon Sadiq and Jamari Johnson.
However, the Ducks are balanced on offense and lean more run-heavy due to a three-headed rotation of running backs. All three backs — Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison, and Dierre Hill Jr. — average 5+ attempts per game.
The Ducks will test the Red Raiders' defensive resolve; linebackers Jacob Rodriguez, Ben Roberts, and John Curry will need to step up and continue to excel, holding strong in both the passing and running game. However, Oregon's offense rarely makes mistakes, ranking fifth-best in havoc rate allowed.
Oregon enters the game as a narrow favorite, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. They are favored by less than a field goal — 2.5 points — with a total of 50.5 points. The winner will advance to the Peach Bowl and face the winner of Indiana-Alabama.
For the first time all season, I am picking against the Red Raiders. It has been a miraculous season, but Oregon's balance might be too much for Texas Tech. The Ducks have been steady, but unless the Red Raiders can truly play suffocating defense, the offensive woes that hide beneath the surface could emerge after a month away from true game speed, derailing Tech's CFP debut.
Teams with first-round byes are 0-5 between last season and this season — that trend may continue on Thursday, Jan. 1, in Miami Gardens, Fla.
Score: Oregon 27-23
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jordan Epp is a journalist who graduated from Texas A&M in 2022 and is passionate about telling stories, sharing news, and finding ways to entertain people through the medium of sports. He has formerly worked as a writer and editor at The Battalion and The Eagle, covering football in College Station, Texas, and served as the managing editor for PFSN.
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