Texas' Chances to Upset Gonzaga Might Come as a Surprise

On Saturday evening, the No. 11‑seed Texas Longhorns will take on the No. 3‑seed Gonzaga Bulldogs in the Round of 32.

The Longhorns may be a double-digit seed, but they definitely aren't playing like one. Texas didn't just win its first-round matchup against the Cougars; it controlled nearly the entire game, toppling future NBA star AJ Dybantsa in the process.

For Gonzaga, this is where the Bulldogs are supposed to be. With an overall record 31-3, many predicted that the program would at least reach the Sweet 16. The Longhorns, on the other hand, are looking to pull off another major upset.

Based on their recent performances, there's reason to believe that Texas could give Gonzaga more trouble than expected. In the words of head coach Sean Miller, the Longhorns can only be described as "dangerous."

Momentum Meets Expectation

Gonzaga Bulldogs' guard Tyon Grant-Foster — Mar 19, 2026; Portland, OR, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Tyon Grant-Foster (7) drives against Kennesaw State Owls forward Frankquon Sherman (6) during the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

But despite this potential "dangerous" label, ESPN still gives Texas just a 25.2 percent chance to win while putting the Longhorns as 5.5-point underdogs against Gonzaga.

Some Texas fans might find this as a surprise, for better or worse. The optismicti fan might think the Longhorns should be less of a betting odd considering the momentum they are building, while the pessimistic one might think Gonzaga isn't predicted to win by enough.

As previously mentioned, the Bulldogs were always expected to get to the second round of March Madness. Gonzaga ended the regular season as the No. 12-ranked team in the country, and were even crowned the West Coast Conference tournament champions with their win over Santa Clara.

Texas' path to the round of 32 was completely different. After losing to a bad Ole Miss team in the SEC Tournament, many made the assumption that the Longhorns would be left out of the NCAA Tournament picture altogether. Instead, they delivered easily one of the most convincing first-round performances of March Madness.

That's where the contrast between the two teams becomes interesting. Gonzaga is playing with the weight of expectation, while Texas is playing with the freedom of a team that has already proved people wrong. One program is trying to meet its standard, while the other is trying to build off of some newfound momentum in the postseason.

While it isn't necessarily something you can look at on a stat sheet, that type of team identity can play a major factor in March. Teams that are playing loose, confident, and with nothing to lose often become the ones that win tight games.

That's the space that Texas is operating in right now. Coach Miller and the Longhorns have already moved past the pressure of reaching the NCAA Tournament and are now looking to cause even more chaos, this time against the Bulldogs.

Make no mistake, Gonzaga presents an entirely different challenge than BYU. The Bulldogs' offense, even if it hasn't been as dominant recently, doesn't rely on one player to have a big night. While Gonzaga's Graham Ike and Braden Huff will be tough to contain, this isn't your typical No. 10-seed and No. 3-seed matchup.

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