Texas' Chances to Upset Purdue Might Come as a Surprise

After a season being as inconsistent as they come, the No. 11 seed Texas Longhorns have emerged as one of the hottest and most dangerous teams in the NCAA Tournament.

After knocking off the No. 11 seed NC State Wolfpack 68-66 in the First Four, Texas then upset the No. 6 seed BYU Cougars 79-71 in the opening round. This past Saturday, the Longhorns secured their third win of the tournament, by upsetting the No. 3 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs 74-68.

Center Matas Vokietaitis and guard Jordan Pope led the way, as they dropped 17 points apiece, combining to shoot 14-of-29 (48%) from the field. For Texas, it marks the first time that they have advanced to the Sweet 16 since 2022-23, but they will have a tall task ahead of them against the No. 2 seed Purdue Boilermakers.

Texas comes in as heavy underdogs

Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith. — Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) celebrates with Purdue Boilermakers guard Fletcher Loyer (2). | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The Longhorns are heading into Thursday's games as 7.5-point underdogs, according to the oddsmakers at DraftKings.

Some might argue that Purdue should be favored by more, but Texas isn't a typical mid-major No. 11 seed.

In addition to being underdogs on the betting market, ESPN's Matchup Predictor is also heavily leaning toward Purdue as well. Texas has just a 24.4% chance of winning per the Matchup Predictor, while Purdue comes in at a whopping 75.7%. chance of winning.

Led by one of the best floor generals that college basketball has ever seen in Braden Smith, who recently surpassed Bobby Hurley's record for career assists, Purdue comes into this game at 29-8.

While they are the higher seed and may be perceived as the better team, Texas can do something that Purdue's first two opponents could not, which is match up well with them in the paint. From Caleb Swanigan to Zach Edey, Purdue has long been known for playing through a big man in the paint.

Although Smith leads the team in scoring, Purdue still loves to feed South Dakota State transfer Oscar Cluff and forward Tret-Kaufman-Renn in the paint. With that being said, Vokietaitis has been nothing short of a star for Texas in the tournament, as he is averaging 18.3 points and 11.0 rebounds.

It's rare for Purdue not to have the advantage in the paint, and this very well could be one of those games based on Vokietaitis' play. So, it will come down to guard play, and while Smith may be an All-American, Texas has a committee of three guys that can get hot at any time.

Whether it be Pope, Dailyn Swain or Tramon Mark, Texas has gotten big performances from each guy throughout the tournament. As for Smith, he is coming off a rough game against Miami, as he made just 3-of-12 shots and turned the ball over eight times.

If Texas can play a clean game, limit Purdue's top options and stay hot, the Longhorns could be Elite Eight-bound. However, if Purdue's veteran roster gets comfortable and Texas begins to foul too much or fail to capitalize on big opportunities, their season can come to an end.

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