Most Likely NFL Draft Possibilities For Longhorns RB Bijan Robinson
Two things are apparent when talking about Texans Longhorns phenom Bijan Robinson: he's the consensus No. 1 running back in the 2023 draft class and no one has any idea when he'll come off the draft board.
Robinson, the reigning Doak Walker Award winner, has garnered pro comparisons to Hall of Fame talents like Edgerrin James, Walter Payton and even Barry Sanders. His ability to win in the open field is uncanny. Defenders are quick, but Robinson looks to be two steps ahead at all times.
If Robinson played during the Ricky Williams or Cedric Benson era, there's no denying he'd be a top-five pick. Should he have suited up in place of Earl Campbell in the 1970s, there's a chance that Chicago would have kept the rights to the No. 1 pick and drafted him once one the clock in Kansas City.
Robinson should hear his name called within the first five picks Thursday night based on talent. That likely won't happen due to teams having other pressing needs. So where could Robinson land by the time the first round of the draft is finished?
Here are five landing spots for the potential All-Pro tailback.
Atlanta Falcons - No. 8
The Falcons found a diamond in the rough last season with BYU running back Ty Allgeier. Surpassing Cordarrelle Patterson as the team's lead back, the former Cougar pounced at the chance to remain RB1 for the foreseeable future, becoming the first player since DeVonta Freeman in 2016 to rush for 1,000 yards.
Atlanta has proven since the hiring of GM Terry Fontenot and coach Arthur Smith that its approach is to take the best player on their big board and prosper. In 2020, the Falcons added tight end Kyle Pitts despite having Hayden Hurst on the roster. He ended up becoming the first tight end since Mike Dikta in 1961 to finish with over 1,000 receiving yards. A year later, they added Drake London to replace Calvin Ridley. With mixed quarterback play, the USC target totaled 72 catches, 48 of which went for first downs.
Smith, who previously served as the Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator, has run-heavy personnel predicated on moving the sticks. There's intrigue with Robinson despite the emergence of Allegier down the stretch. And Fontenot often plays the board over position value.
Is running back Atlanta's most significant need? Not in the slightest. Should it stop the franchise from adding a game-changing playmaker that could elevate the offense to postseason contention? Not in the slightest.
Philadelphia Eagles - No. 10
Philly finished top-five in rushing last season thanks to a breakout campaign from fourth-year pro Miles Sanders. He left this offseason after agreeing to terms on a multi-year deal with Carolina. When former Seahawks' star Rashaad Penny is healthy, he's a difference-maker in the open field, but can't be counted on as a long-term solution due to a laundry list of injuries.
The Eagles have an extra first-round pick at No. 30, meaning one of their first-round picks could be a luxury selection. Philadelphia was one of two franchises to bring in Robinson on a pre-draft visit, and the rapport from their meetings has been positive. If the Eagles were to add him at No. 10 — he won't be there at the end of Roud 1 — Robinson would be joining arguably the top roster in the NFC, which features talent like Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and sensational offensive line.
Oh, and just for an added bonus, Robinson told ESPN earlier this week that Hurts is the one quarterback he wants to play with.
Detriot Lions - No. 18
Jared Goff was at his best with a stable run game in Los Angeles. While the former No. 1 pick led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in 2018, he rode shotgun behind the legs of All-Pro sensation Todd Gurley, a three-time 1,000-yard rusher who took home Offensive Player of the Year honors in 2017.
History has a funny way of repeating itself. Goff posted his best numbers since 2018 with the Motor City franchise and nearly led the team to the NFC Playoffs. In large part, Jamaal Williams' red zone impact kept Detroit in games in close matchups. The Lions look to be a legitimate threat in the NFC with Aaron Rodgers now departing for New York and could benefit from fortifying their run game to take pressure off Goff.
Yes, Detroit added David Montgomery this offseason, but D'Andre Swift is set to become a free agent. GM Brad Holmes also has two mid-level picks in the second round to target other needs on Day 2. Robinson would be headed to land that built Barry and features one of the better offensive lines in the league. Call it a win-win for everybody — including Lions' fans.
Los Angeles Chargers - No. 21
Why would the Chargers make this pick? For those of you still entrenched trying to crack the code as to why Arch Manning won't be the starter on the Forty Acres in 2023, the franchise that drafted his uncle No. 1 overall in 2004 is dealing with an Austin Ekler dilemma. Let's not bore you with the details; Ekeler wants to be paid and the Chargers don't want to give him a deal.
Much like giving Hurts a weapon in the City of Brotherly Love, giving Justin Herbert a talent like Robinson only strengthens the offense for new coordinator Kellen Moore. Formerly calling the shots for the Dallas Cowboys, Moore orchestrated a top-10 offense at The Star on three separate occasions, often relying on a balanced approach between the run and pass with Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott, respectively.
Ekler is more than your standard running back, but so is Robinson. Last season, the Longhorns star averaged 13.5 yards per catch and improved as a run blocker on passing downs. Should Ekeler be on his way out, the Chargers should at least consider having Robinson be on his way in as the foreseeable replacement.
Anyone else getting flashbacks of LaDainian Tomlinson and Philip Rivers?
Dallas Cowboys - No. 26
No matter how you chop it up, this has to be Robinson's floor. From a marketing standpoint, it makes sense. A production standpoint? Without question makes sense. And from a positional value standpoint, this is where taking a flyer on a running back has merit.
Strike that — for Jerry Jones, this isn't a steal. It's THE steal of the draft.
Elliott was released prior to the start of free agency after averaging a career-low 3.8 yards per carry. Dallas franchise-tagged Tony Pollard, but he's coming off a broken leg and never has totaled more than 200 carries in a season. Even if the Cowboys view Pollard as the new lead back, Elliott still managed to rush for 876 yards and 12 TDs last season on a bum knee.
That's more than a sustainable ask for Robinson. In fact, one could argue that should be the bare minimum for a player of Robinson's skills.
Jones is a businessman. The draft is a business decision. From jersey sales to on-field production to marketing purposes across the Lone Star State, damn the other needs for Dallas. Robinson might be gone at this point, but he falls to No. 26, Jones should be spriting — or power walking at his age — to the podium to keep the pride of Longhorns' football home.
HM: Chicago Bears - No. 9
There's no way this happens, right? At No. 9, probably not. In a trade-back scenario? Let's not rule anything out.
Despite finishing with the league's worst record, Chicago led the NFL in rushing last season behind the legs of dual-threat sensation Justin Fields. He might have been the face of the ground game, but David Montgomery was responsible for 801 of those 3,000-plus yards.
Montgomery signed with division rival Detroit this offseason. Khalil Herbert proved he could handle sufficient carries as a potential lead option, and Chicago signed former Longhorn D'Onta Foreman in the offseason. Still, imagine Fields' dual-threat skills paired with Robinson's upside as a receiving threat.
Who cares about offensive line woes, right? These two alone would lead the NFL in yards after contact and likely total touchdowns. It likely doesn't happen, but if I were to give you a wild card scenario after talking to several NFL evaluators this spring, he's my Babe Ruth moment.
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