A Look At History: Texas' Chance At Deep Tournament Run

Texas dropped just its second home game on Saturday, as Texas Tech (21-6, 10-4 in Big 12) pulled out an impressive win down the stretch in front of an Erwin Center crowd that was split into red and burnt orange.

"You’re not gonna get me to go anywhere other than just positive," Texas coach Chris Beard said. "They don’t hand out the trophy in February. They do that in April."

Beard's goal has been clear since day one: playing in a Monday night championship game. On Feb. 19, the NCAA revealed its top 16 teams in the projected recent bracket, with Texas sliding in as a No. 4 seed in the West Region.

Every Final Four since 2010 has had at least one team seeded four or lower. We've seen some magical runs before, so it's a fair question. Why not Texas?

Texas made it to a Final Four as a No. 1 seed in 2003 under former coach Rick Barnes. Beard led Texas Tech to the 2019 national championship game and certainly has the same expectations for these Horns. He called this group "a Final Four contender" after the win over Kansas on Feb. 7.

Does Beard have another deep tournament run in him? Or is he just staying confident in the process like a good coach would?

The Longhorns have the third-best scoring defense in the country (57.7 points) this season despite playing in one of college basketball's toughest conferences.

Texas certainly has the defense to make a run, but it's this team's offensive scoring consistency (68.4 points, 227th overall) that will determine success in the tournament.

Let's compare this to past Final Four teams that were a four seed or lower.

The Butler Bulldogs made it to the 2010 championship game as a five seed with the eighth-best scoring defense (59.4 points) and just the 144th-best scoring offense (70.1 points). The following season, the Bulldogs were back in the title game as an eighth seed with just the 72nd-best defense (64.7 points).

Butler's trips to back-to-back championship games under coach Brad Stevens were unprecedented, but it shows that anything can happen in the tournament.

Similarly, Wichita State made it to the Final Four as a nine seed in 2013 with the 40th-best scoring defense (61.2 points). UConn won it all the following season as a seven seed with the 31st scoring defense (63.5 points) and an offense that was just 114th in the country in scoring.

Need a few more examples? Tenth-seeded Syracuse had an impressive 23rd-best scoring defense (65.1) during its Final Four run in 2016, but this is still a near eight-point difference compared to the 2022 Longhorns.

Seventh-seeded South Carolina made it to the semifinals in 2017 with a solid 31st-best defense (65.3 points). This mark still doesn't come close to Texas' defense scoring average.

The burnt orange defense clearly stacks up well against recent Final Four teams that were seeded four or lower, making it hard to rule out a trip to New Orleans.

Of course, all this could mean nothing. Something unforeseen happens in the tournament every year, including last season when No. 3 Texas lost to No. 14 Abilene Christian, forcing the Longhorns into a complete rework.

But as it's been said before, the rest of the season is still unwritten and Texas controls its own destiny.

“We’ll be back," Beard said. "This is what competition at this level is like”

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