College Football Picks: LSU, Notre Dame, Ohio State and More
It’s now the home stretch of the college football season. Which teams continue to move forward and come up with big wins and which one’s falter?
Here are a few games to think about around the nation that have nothing to do with the state of Florida or UCF playing at Tulane.
Noon Games
#7 LSU at Arkansas
There’s no time to gloat in the SEC West. After knocking off Alabama 32-31, LSU has a rivalry game with its neighbor to the north, Arkansas.
The SI Sportsbook likes LSU, but only by 3.5 points. Not enough respect for the Tigers against the Razorbacks, perhaps?
Arkansas ranked No. 59 in rushing defense after last week, giving up 140.6 yards on the ground per game. LSU’s rushing total needs to be lower than that for the Hogs to pull off the upset.
When quarterback Jayden Daniels has a rushing attack to go along with his right arm throwing darts, LSU has been a dangerous offensive team. Ask Alabama.
Daniels has completed at least 68.8% of his passes during each of the past four games for the Tigers. That’s been the other key beyond running the football for the LSU offense. When Daniels let the football go, good things happened. That’s why Arkansas absolutely must slow down the LSU rushing attack, especially on first down, so that Daniels does not have a plethora of play calling options.
Arkansas has given up 30.7 points per game this season, however, so it’s hard to see it holding down Daniels and the Tigers.
Prediction: LSU 34 Arkansas 20
Indiana at #2 Ohio State
This will be an annihilation from the beginning to the end. Indiana has proved nothing this season that’s worth anyone realistically believing that the Hoosiers can hang with the Buckeyes.
Look for quarterback CJ Stroud to light up Indiana’s secondary during the first half, and he will be hanging out on the sidelines by the early fourth quarter at the latest. He should throw for at least three touchdowns during this contest and continue to be a frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy.
In short, there’s a reason that the SI Sportsbook has Ohio State as a 40.5 point favorite over Indiana.
Prediction: Ohio State 56 Indiana 10
Notre Dame at Navy
This is a unique game. After Notre Dame’s stunning 35-14 win over Clemson last week, how mentally prepared will the Irish be to play a Navy team that’s just 3-6 on the season and looks to be just about as close rudderless as an option team can be?
The point spread was placed at just 17 by the SI Sportsbook. Do those folks know something here, such as a key injury that’s not been reported by Irish head coach Marcus Freeman? Perhaps it’s just that they expect Notre Dame to play with far less enthusiasm.
That’s certainly plausible as Navy has given Notre Dame fits for years, many times when it appeared to be a below average team. There’s still a problem for Navy, however.
At some point, Irish running backs Audric Estime and Logan Diggs are likely to bust loose. Even if it’s ugly, Notre Dame will prevail. Will the Irish cover? Not as likely.
Prediction: Notre Dame 34 Navy 19
3:30 Game
#9 Alabama at #11 Ole Miss
Alabama appeared to be out of the College Football Playoff hunt after the LSU loss. Is it though? Alabama is favored by 10.5 points over Ole Miss by the SI Sportsbook. Regardless of the betting line, this is going to be an interesting game.
If the Crimson Tide can somehow blowout the Rebels, many perspectives could change as to their chances to reach the CFB Playoff. First, that means winning on the road in a hostile environment. Alabama is used to seeing packed stadiums, so this will not be a new task.
Finding ways to be more consistent on offense has been the challenge instead. Alabama has been seemingly just a tad bit off with many of its offensive drives that did not lead to points. A missed block, poorly run route, or penalties have been some culprits. That cannot continue if Alabama wants to knock off Lane Kiffin and this quality Ole Miss team.
Maybe most importantly, how quarterback Jaxson Dart performs today will decide the game, because he’s going up against Alabama’s Bryce Young, the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner.
If Dart can throw for 250 or more yards, not turn the football over, and be good on third down, Ole Miss has a chance to win. He will certainly look to rely on his running game, bolstered by true freshman Quinshon Judkins with his 1,034 yards and 13 touchdowns so far in 2022.
It’s still hard to pick against Young, Nick Saban and Alabama, especially coming off a loss.
Prediction: Alabama 38 Ole Miss 34
7:30 Game
#4 TCU at #18 Texas
This is going to be a dandy. Texas has hung around against Alabama, losing a close game at the end. It’s also been a team that’s let opponents back into the contest. Will the Longhorns play a complete game today?
They had better play a complete game. The Horned Frogs are a team that’s battled to the end no matter the score, including the comeback victory over Oklahoma State. A quality quarterback in Max Duggan made critical plays to date, and the defense has been timely with interceptions and run stuffs.
The key here will be Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers. He’s been up and down as a redshirt freshman. Can he be careful enough with the football to not add to his five interceptions during the first six games he played (Ewers missed three games with injury)?
That’s where the rubber meets the road. The Horned Frogs hold an experience advantage over Ewers and a young Texas team. Despite that fact, Texas is at home and the SI Sportsbook has the Longhorns favored by seven over the Horned Frogs.
Maybe there’s just too much “action” on Texas by its enormous fanbase for the line to swing back towards TCU? Whatever the case, it’s an interesting betting line.
Prediction: TCU 27 Texas 21
