AAC Title Game Statistics & Trends to Know: UCF at Tulane
The UCF Knights are one of the more interesting teams in college football for stat junkies. They have seen some wild swings on both sides of the football this year, plus the kicking game.
With the upcoming American Athletic Conference championship game at Tulane, UCF will need to reverse a couple of trends, and extend a few more, to out with a win. Let’s start with the areas to improve.
Rushing Defense Needs Vast Improvement
Leaving Navy out of the equation because it's a true triple-option team, UCF has given up 149 to Memphis, 155 to Tulane, and 298 to USF. The horrific second half by the Knights rushing defense against the Bulls is the primary concern, as they ran seemingly at will.
What happened? A few weeks prior, UCF held Cincinnati to 35 yards rushing.
The Knights dominated the first quarter and a half against the Bulls and did not allow a point. However, USF was already showing signs that it could move the football. Several times UCF lost gap control and did not set the edge. Both are cardinal sins for a defense.
If UCF cannot vastly improve, there’s a good chance that Tulane will run wild. Out of everything that needs to happen for a UCF win this Saturday, this is flat out No. 1 on the board.
More Big Passing Plays
UCF certainly hit the home run when quarterback Mikey Keene connected with wide receiver Javon Baker for the 41-yard strike during the final drive against USF. It was sorely needed. The Bulls did a nice job of keeping UCF from connecting on many other big passing plays though.
Even if it’s popping a screen for a 25-yard gain, the Knights need to be more consistent with hitting Tulane with passes that truly change the momentum and play calling. If the Knights can hit a few deep balls against the Green Wave, that would also help to back up the secondary and give Isaiah Bowser and RJ Harvey more room to run as well.
Now two areas that UCF needs to continue to do well.
Creating Turnovers
The three first half turnovers for USF were killers. Those three USF turnovers allowed UCF to gain momentum and built a 28-0 lead. While expecting three first half turnovers versus Tulane should not be considered likely, continuing to be aggressive should be a concept UCF has executed well when this contest has been completed.
Rip at the football when the ball carrier is stood up. When a tipped pass goes into the air, actually catch it. Sounds simple in both cases, but often college football players miss the obvious. Even one additional turnover against a quality team like Tulane could turn out to be the difference with which squad comes out with a win.
Last note about turnovers. The Knights are due for another strip-sack with a scoop and score.
Be a Physical Offense
UCF had its best rushing game of the season against the Bulls with 345 yards, a 7.3 yards per carry average, and three touchdowns. Ironically, just two games ago against Navy, UCF produced only 84 rushing yards. Part of that was related to the Midshipmen running the football and playing keep away from the Knights, but still, 84 yards?
UCF appeared to be back on track against USF, and that must continue when traveling to New Orleans for a second time this season. Here’s a great example of why.
Even during the game-winning drive at USF, UCF did not go into a mode of throwing the football during every down. UCF kept USF off balance with runs from Bowser – and even Keene despite him being considered a pocket passer – that helped set up the touchdown catch by tight end Alec Holler.
If UCF stays balanced on offense by running the football, it will have an excellent chance to be in the thick of the fight with Tulane come the fourth quarter. To be honest, the same game plan as during the first game in New Orleans should be administered once again. Tulane struggled to handle UCF’s rushing attack then, so make them prove something has changed.
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