UConn Earns Highest Chance to Win NCAA Tournament
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Head coach Geno Auriemma and the UConn Huskies are entering the NCAA Tournament as the league's overall number one seed with a perfect 34-0 record. The Huskies won the Big East Tournament over the Villanova Wildcats 90-51 to cap off their perfect season.
And now going into the NCAA Tournament, according to ESPN Analytics, they enter with the best odds to win it all and bring home back-to-back National Titles. The Huskies defeated the South Carolina Gamecocks last year in the National Championship and are looking for the same result this time around.
The UConn women have a 48% chance to win a 13th National Championship per ESPN Analytics.
— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) March 16, 2026
No other school enters the tournament with more than a 15% chance. pic.twitter.com/4fZFRrTU1e
It is absolutely remarkable that the Huskies lost former superstar Paige Bueckers to the WNBA after winning it all last year, and are the favorite again this season. It speaks volumes to how UConn usually gets the top recruits and how well of a job Auriemma has done as head coach.
The Huskies are currently led by superstars Azzi Fudd and Sarah Strong, who both play at incredibly high levels and have carried the team this year. So much so, that the Huskies can bench them for second halves of games and still win by a huge amount.
Fudd and Strong should be able to help the Huskies get pretty far in the tournament. It seems like the Huskies might not see a true challenge till around the Final Four, but that's good for Auriemma as he should not have to play Fudd and Strong as much till they are absolutely needed later in the tournament.
The dropoff in percent chance to win shows how dominant UConn has been this season
Anybody that watches basketball knows that Auriemma and the Huskies have been the league's best team all season. The only team that challenged the Huskies very early in the year was the Michigan Wolverines where UConn only won by 3.
But other than that game, the Huskies were beating opponents by 30-40+ points on a nightly basis. And the fact that ESPN Analytics has such a gap in who has a chance to win the NCAA Tournament between a select few teams, shows who has been good this season.
The teams in that graphic with UConn could realistically challenge the Huskies, but does not seem likely that any of them could beat UConn. Auriemma and his team have done such a good job this year in getting out to fast starts and just imposing their will on opponents.
And with the tournament getting underway soon, Auriemma should have his team ready to go. The Huskies will host the UTSA Roadrunners in the opening round in Storrs.
Tyler is a 25 year old Journalism graduate from Georgia Southern University. Tyler is a big fan of hockey, baseball, basketball, and football, and also is a staff writer for Fansided.