NCAA Tournament: 2021 Sweet 16 Seed Aggregate Sets an All-Time High
The 2021 Sweet 16 is set and, as expected in this COVID-19 season, the group of teams involved has made history.
One exercise I enjoy doing each year during March Madness is counting the aggregate number of the seeds of the teams involved in the Sweet 16. What do I mean by this?
Quite simply, I take the seed number of all 16 teams and add them together. A lower number means the Sweet 16 is really “chalky”. A higher number means the tournament has been riddled with upsets.
What are the possibilities for the low and high end of this aggregate number? Another great question.
I start my research in 1985, because that’s when the field expanded to 64 teams for the first time.
The lowest possible number is 40. An aggregate of 40 would occur if each of the four regions produced the one, two, three, and four seeds. The lowest aggregate number we’ve ever had is 49, which occurred in both 2009 and 2019.
2009 featured all four No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3 seeds, plus two of the No. 4s, a No. 5, and a No. 12. Interestingly enough, 2019’s Sweet 16 had the exact same composition as 2009. That means, in theory, that those were the two most competitive Sweet 16 groupings in the modern NCAA Tournament era. If nothing else, they were at least the "chalkiest".
The highest possible seed aggregate for a grouping Sweet 16 teams is 232. Quite obviously this will never happen, because it would mean that the No. 13, No. 14, No. 15, and No. 16 seed came out of each bracket. That’s just not reality; it won’t ever come remotely close to happening.
The most double-digit seeds we’ve ever had in a single Sweet 16 is five, and those were three No. 10s, a No. 12, and a No. 13.
Spoiler alert: The Sweet 16 seed aggregate has never broken 100. Prior to this year (FORESHADOWING!), the highest Sweet 16 seed aggregate was 89, set in 1986. That Sweet 16 contained three No. 1 seeds, two No. 2 seeds, a No. 3, a No. 4, two No. 5s, one No. 6, two No. 7s, and one each of No. 8, No. 11, No. 12, and No. 14.
While the Sweet 16 seed aggregate has never broken 100, we came close, oh so close, to getting into triple digits this year.
By the time Oregon dispensed of Iowa in Monday’s first game, it was already a mathematical certainty that the total Sweet 16 aggregate would eclipse 1986's 89, even if there were no other upsets in the final seven games of the day. The lowest possible total at that point was 91.
Interestingly enough, the next six games all went to the favorites – Gonzaga, UCLA, Creighton, Michigan, Florida State, and Alabama. Those wins kept the minimum aggregate at 91.
However, there was one game left. No. 3 Kansas was squaring off against No. 6 USC in the final tip of the Second Round. If the Jayhawks won, the number would stay at 91, however, if the Trojans came away with the victory, the Sweet 16 aggregate would jump to 94. Either way, the total would be the highest number in the modern history of the NCAA Tournament.
What we know now is that USC handed Kansas its worst loss in NCAA Tournament history – a 34-point blowout.
So 2021 has now set the record for the highest aggregate seed count for the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16, with a tally of 94.
One final note: Not only did this year produce the highest aggregate seed count in the Sweet 16, but 2021 is also tied with 1986 and 1990 for the most unique seeds in the Sweet 16 with 11. At least one of each seed one through eight is in, plus a No. 11, No. 12, and No. 15.
Thus, this season riddled with postponements, cancellations, COVID pauses, and other issues has unsurprisingly dealt us the most unexpected and diverse Sweet 16 in modern NCAA Tournament history.
Will next weekend provide more upsets as we move through the Sweet 16 to the Elite Eight and ultimately the Final Four? Only time will tell.
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