Three Games Will Define Bill Belichick’s First Season at UNC

North Carolina’s 2025 season under Bill Belichick will ultimately be defined by how the Tar Heels perform in three pivotal games that each carry high stakes, national attention, and lasting implications.

Dec 12, 2024; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; Monitors with signage in Kenan Stadium announcing the hiring of North Carolina Tar Heels new head coach Bill Belichick at Loudermilk Center for Excellence. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

North Carolina’s 2025 football season isn’t just about the debut of Bill Belichick—it’s about whether the Tar Heels can meet the moment when the pressure to win is at its highest. 

With a program in transition and fewer than five returning starters from last season, North Carolina will look to improve on its 6-7 finish in 2024. Even with the greatest head coach in pro football history now roaming the sidelines, the Tar Heels face a challenging road ahead as they adjust to a new coaching staff and work to replace more than half of last season’s offensive production.

Three games will carry the most weight for the Tar Heels, especially with the circumstances that will or could surround the game: the season-opener with TCU, the first ACC game of the season against Clemson and the season finale against crosstown rival NC State.

While all may have different circumstances for why the game is important, how UNC handles them will ultimately determine whether Belichick’s first season is remembered as a turning point or a missed opportunity.

Week 1 vs. TCU - Sept. 1 (Labor Day, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Jul 9, 2025; Frisco, TX, USA; TCU head coach Sonny Dykes speaks with the media during 2025 Big 12 Football Media Days at The Star. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

All eyes will be on this game, literally.

UNC will take on TCU in the only game that will be on the television on Labor Day to kick off the Belichick era in Chapel Hill. While TCU might not be a brand program such as Alabama or Ohio State, its name still holds weight.

Since 2000, the Horned Frogs have a 220-95 overall record, 13 10-win seasons, 10 11-win seasons, six AP Top 10 finishes, five BCS/New Year Six/CFP bowl games and a national runner-up finish in 2022.

TCU is coming off of a 9-4 season in 2024 and will be in the Big 12 title hunt once again with Josh Hoover in his third year as the starting quarterback.

This is a great opportunity for Belichick and co. start the new regime with a bang, esecially against a solid program like TCU has.

Week 5 vs. Clemson - Oct. 4 (TBD)

Clemson wide receiver Cole Turner (22) catches a ball near North Carolina defensive back DeAndre Boykins (16) during the second quarter of the ACC Championship football game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina Saturday, Dec 3, 2022. | Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK

If UNC handles its business in its non-conference schedule, it could have a primetime matchup with Clemson.

The Tigers are the odds-on favorites to win the ACC and are legit national title contenders for the first time in a few years. The odds aren’t in North Carolina’s favor to earn an upset win over Clemson.

The Tar Heels have not beaten Clemson since 2010 and are 1-9 in their last 10 meetings with the Tigers. In the last two meetings between the traditional ACC programs, it resulted in double-digit defats for UNC - 31-20 in 2023 and a 39-10 loss in 2022.

Clemson returns most of its production from the season, including a potential Heisman candidate Cade Klubnik.

Nevertheless, an upset win over Clemson not only puts UNC in a great position to contend for an ACC title. It will cause a narrative shift towards UNC and recruits will start paying attention to what’s cooking in Chapel Hill.

Week 13 at NC State - Nov. 29 (TBA)

Nov 30, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack running back Hollywood Smothers (20) reacts with wide receiver Wesley Grimes (6) after scoring a touchdown with 25 seconds to go in the fourth quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

There’s no sugarcoating this one—North Carolina and NC State do not like each other. Their rivalry, one of the fiercest in the ACC, has only intensified in recent years. A viral postgame brawl broke out in 2024 after NC State planted its flag at midfield in Kenan Stadium, celebrating its fourth consecutive win in the series and seventh in the last nine matchups.

For Belichick to win over Tar Heel fans, taking down the Wolfpack in Raleigh would go a long way. But that won’t be easy—NC State has won three of the last four games at home against UNC. If Carolina wants to prove it’s turning the page, snapping the streak against its bitter rival would be the ultimate signature.