UNC Football Preview: North Carolina at (20) NC State

Carolina travels to Raleigh to take on NC State in the regular season finale.

Author:
Isaac Schade
Nov 26, 2021 8:00 AM EST

Let’s be honest, this football season has not gone as hoped or planned for North Carolina. The preseason conference championship and College Football Playoff aspirations are but a distant memory. All hope is not lost though. Last week against Wofford the Tar Heels won their sixth game to become bowl eligible for the third straight season. This week they can put a cherry on top of the regular season by clinching their second straight “state championship”.

Carolina has won seven straight against the other three North Carolina ACC schools and are looking to move to 8-1 against their intrastate conference opponents in Mack Brown’s second Tar Heel tenure.

Doing so won’t be easy as Carolina travels to hostile Carter-Finley Stadium to take on NC State in the regular season finale. The Wolfpack come in ranked 20^th in the most recent CFP poll and looking to snap a two-game losing streak to the Tar Heels. UNC hopes to extend that streak to three games, which they haven’t done against NC State since 2004-06.

The Tar Heels are facing their fourth ranked opponent in the last five games with Wofford being the lone exception. Virginia is the only other ACC school to play four teams ranked at the time of the game (Georgia Tech will join that list on Saturday). Carolina is 1-2 in the previous three games against ranked opponents.

Three Things To Watch Out For

1. Josh Downs in the Carolina Record book. Downs has 90 receptions for 1,198 yards this season in 11 games. Hakeem Nicks set the program record in 2008 with 1,222 yards on 68 receptions, but took 13 games to do so. To save you the trouble of doing math (it’s a holiday after all, who wants to calculate numbers?), Downs needs 24 yards on Friday to tie Nicks. His season low is 35, so barring something unforeseen happening, Downs will finish the game on Friday night with his name etched in the UNC record book.

2. Penalties. The Tar Heels started out the season playing a disciplined brand of football. Over the first five games, they averaged 5.4 penalties a game for 52.5 penalty yards. Over the next five games those numbers jumped to 10.8 penalties per game for 101.8 penalty yards. Thankfully, against Wofford last week, Carolina tied their season low with just three penalties for a season low 28 penalty yards. Which team will show up in Raleigh?

3. Sam Howell’s Health. The best quarterback in Tar Heel history missed a game for the first time in his career last weekend with an injury. Reports indicate that Howell is trending in the right direction for Friday night, but we’ll have to wait and see what the on-field product looks like. If Howell isn’t himself, Mack Brown will have to decide what percentage of Howell is more helpful to the team than Jacolby Criswell or Drake Maye.

TAR HEELS ON OFFENSE

As discussed above, Sam Howell’s health will have massive ramifications for the Tar Heels’ ability to win on the road for the first time all season.

If Howell can’t go, or isn’t enough of himself to be effective, Mack Brown will either call upon Criswell or Maye. Given the level of experience, one expects Criswell to be tapped for back-up duty, but hopefully we won’t have to find out.

Can Antoine Green, Kamari Morales, Garrett Walston, and Justin Olson provide enough support to Downs to make the passing game effective?

If so, it will hopefully provide enough space for Ty Chandler to operate out of the backfield, both on the ground and in the passing attack. Chandler has shared much of the load with Howell, but will OC Phil Longo call as many designed quarterback runs knowing that Howell isn’t 100%?

TAR HEELS ON DEFENSE

Devin Leary is the Wolfpack quarterback, completing 65.8% of his 401 passes for 3,186 yards and 31 touchdowns, against just five interceptions. Thankfully for the Tar Heels, Leary hasn’t done much with his legs. NC State’s QB has 46 rushing attempts for -43 yards (keep in mind that includes lost yardage on sacks) and two touchdowns.

Instead, the rushing attack is led by the two-headed monster of Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person, Jr. Knight has 684 yards and three touchdowns on 131 attempts, while Person is just behind him with 573 yards on 124 attempts (although has found the end zone five times). In total, NC State has just 11 rushing touchdowns this season (average of one per game). For comparison’s sake, the Tar Heels have 27 rushing touchdowns and Ty Chandler himself has 13.

It stands to reason, then, that the Wolfpack have done most of their damage through the air (31 receiving touchdowns). Of the main running backs, Person is the more involved in the passing attack with 27 catches for 240 yards and two touchdowns.

NC State doesn’t involve their tight ends in the passing game, almost as a rule. Only one (Dylan Parham) has a reception and even he has just four catches for 19 yards, although two of those four are for touchdowns.

The top four receivers statistically are Emeka Emezie (55 receptions, 690 yards, four TDs), Devin Carter (31, 556, six), Thayer Thomas (47, 548, seven), and Porter Rooks (23, 298, zero).

Unfortunately, Carolina will have to face that passing attack without secondary staple Ja’Quirous Conley who tore his ACL on the opening kickoff last weekend against Wofford. Trey Morrison will move over to take Conley’s spot and Gio Biggers will step into the starting lineup for the second time this season.

PREVIOUS GAMES

UNC

L 17-10 | @ Virginia Tech
W 59-17 | vs. Georgia State
W 59-39 | vs. Virginia
L 45-22 | @ Georgia Tech
W 38-7 | vs. Duke
L 35-25 | vs. Florida State
W 45-42 | vs. Miami
L 44-34 | @ (11) Notre Dame
W 58-55 | vs. (9) Wake Forest
L 30-23 OT | @ (21) Pittsburgh
W 34-14 | vs. Wofford

NC STATE

W 45-0 | vs. USF
L 24-10 | @ Mississippi State
W 45-7 | vs. Furman
W 27-21 | vs. (9) Clemson
W 34-27 | vs. Louisiana Tech
W 33-7 | @ Boston College
L 31-30 | @ Miami
W 28-13 | vs. Louisville
W 28-14 | @ Florida State
L 45-42 | @ (12) Wake Forest
W 41-17 | vs. Syracuse

Here’s all the nitty-gritty details you need to know about Game 12 of the 2021 UNC football season:

North Carolina (6-5, 3-4) at (20) NC State (8-3, 5-2)

Raleigh, NC
Carter-Finley Stadium
Friday, November 26, 2021
7:00 p.m. ET
ESPN

All-time Series: UNC leads 68-36-6
Series Streak: UNC won two
Last Meeting: Saturday, October 24, 2020 | Chapel Hill, NC | 48-21 UNC
Last Time UNC won: Saturday, October 24, 2020 | Chapel Hill, NC | 48-21 UNC
Last Meeting in Chapel Hill: Saturday, October 24, 2020 | Chapel Hill, NC | 48-21 UNC

NORTH CAROLINA
Record: 6-5 (3-4 ACC)
Head Coach: Mack Brown (Florida State, '74)
Overall Record: 265-137-1, 33rd year
Record at UNC: 90-61-1, 13th year

NC STATE
Record: 8-3 (5-2 ACC)
Head Coach: Dave Doeren (Drake ’93)
Overall Record: 86-53, 11th year
Record at NC State: 63-49, 9th year