Why UNC Will Win and Why It Will Lose vs. TCU

UNC’s hopes rest on Gio Lopez and a strong run game, but injuries up front and TCU’s fast-paced offense may prove too much.

Dec 14, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head football coach Bill Belichick is introduced during half time at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

North Carolina opens its season Monday night with one of the most intriguing matchups of Week 1, hosting TCU under the primetime spotlight in Chapel Hill.

There are a lot of storylines with this game, as it is Bill Belichick's first game as a head coach, the Air Raid vs. Belichick's defense and the striking similarities between the two coaches, as some of them have coached the same players.

Oct 28, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; A detailed view of a North Carolina Tar Heels helmet on the field before a game against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

A strong ground attack would also help the Tar Heels control tempo and keep TCU’s Air Raid offense off the field. But questions remain, particularly along the offensive line, where injuries have weakened protection. Against a quarterback as dangerous as Josh Hoover, that combination could determine whether UNC celebrates or stumbles in its opener.

Here are some reasons why the Tar Heels will win, and here is they will lose.

Gio Lopez

UNC quarterback Gio Lopez will start for the Tar Heels in Week 1 against TCU. | Rodd Baxley/The Fayetteville Observer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The offense will likely go as far as Lopez takes it. With two offensive linemen sidelined, Lopez may need to live up to his nickname and create the plays necessary to secure a win. 

He has shown he can do that as he completed 66%  of his passes for 2,559 yards with 18 touchdowns and five interceptions in 11 games. If you take away the sack yardage, he also rushed for 543 yards and scored seven more times on the ground.

In 2024, Lopez had a 91.0 deep passing grade according to PFF, which is his highest passing grade and also puts him as one of the most effective gunslingers. Lopez completed 41% of his passes, going for 20 yards or more for 759 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. 

Establish the Run Game

Sep 28, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels running back Davion Gause (21) runs with the ball during the first half of the game against Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium. | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

If you want to have an effective offense, it starts by having a constant running game. It may be harder to do so, considering the Tar Heels could be without two of their starters on Monday night. However, TCU allowed 160.5 yards per game on the ground, which was 80th in the country.

North Carolina has a capable running back in Davion Gause, who rushed for 326 yards and four touchdowns last season as the No. 2 tailback behind Omarion Hampton. I would expect to see a committee, but Gause would get the most snaps.

Another reason why you have to establish the run game is that you have to keep TCU’s offense off the field. TCU’s Air Raid attack relies on tempo and to use tempo effectively you have to be on rhythm. 

The best way to slow down TCU’s offense is to run the football to run down the clock. The longer the drives, the more the Horned Frogs lose their rhythm. However, the defense also must do its job and slow down TCU’s aerial attack.

Making Josh Hoover Uncomfortable

Nov 23, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) throws a pass against the Arizona Wildcats in the second quarter at Amon G. Carter Stadium. | Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

Given the amount of attention placed on the line of scrimmage in the transfer portal, the pass rush will be crucial in pressuring Hoover. Against a proven quarterback, it’s important to make him feel unsettled. Hoover set a school record last season with 3,949 passing yards and 27 touchdowns, but he also threw 11 interceptions, including a stretch of three straight games with two picks.

Why They’ll Lose

Nov 23, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) throws a pass before the game against the Arizona Wildcats at Amon G. Carter Stadium. | Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

Missing Two Veteran Offensive Linemen

If there were two players North Carolina’s offense could least afford to lose, it was Austin Blaske and Christo Kelly. Blaske, a super senior and the Tar Heels’ most experienced lineman, will miss the first month with a foot injury after starting every game last season without surrendering a sack. Kelly, a Holy Cross transfer, is questionable with a lower-body injury. 

Both brought veteran stability to an otherwise reshuffled line. Without them, UNC’s protection is vulnerable, especially against a TCU front seven that thrives on creating pressure and forcing mistakes.

Inability to Slow TCU’s Offense Down

This is the concern everyone is watching. TCU has ranked among the nation’s top 10 passing offenses the last two seasons, and when the Horned Frogs find their rhythm, they can be difficult to stop. For North Carolina, pressuring the pocket and forcing quarterback Josh Hoover into risky throws could create opportunities. 

At the same time, the Tar Heels must establish the run to control the clock and disrupt TCU’s tempo. Sustained drives will be key to keeping the Horned Frogs’ high-powered offense on the sideline.

Be sure to follow North Carolina Tar Heels On SI on X (formerly Twitter), and don’t forget to like our page on Facebook!