5 Burning Questions: Who is USC after five games?

Adam Maya (1): OK, Yogi, what do you make of this team after five games?

Yogi Roth: Unexpected is the word that comes to mind because of the quarterback. You really can’t give a pure eval on what you predicted the season to be and where they're at now based on JT (Daniels) being hurt and then based on Kedon (Slovis) being hurt. I think overall the changes that need to be made, I believe have been felt, for the most part. Talk to anybody within the program, they talk about how it's a different culture, clearly they changed the staff, clearly they’ve gotten rid of some players that maybe didn't fit the renewed ideology and they changed their scheme. And I think the schemes are working. Defense is playing better, offense is playing better, when you consider all things, such as, obviously the quarterback but Talanoa being down and Olaijah being down, let alone Jordan Iosefa

I think Clay (Helton) is doing a really solid job right now. I'm a believer in what they're doing. I see some teams around the country now that are struggling, that are disappointing in their wins and losses and more importantly disappointing in how they perform and how they compete. I don't see that -- ‘SC hasn’t laid down. ‘SC hasn’t folded when it’s gotten hard. That to me is probably my takeaway. We'll see if it can transition to wins. The schedule, on one hand gets lighter, but it kind of doesn't. It’s not like playing Khalil Tate is an easy thing to do. So that’s probably where I'm at on them. I’m not selling them. I still believe in what Clay’s doing. I believe in his staff and the renewed scheme and he had something happened to him that hasn’t happened to a lot of teams around the country, especially blue blood teams, which is lose two quarterbacks.

Maya (2): Yeah. And there was a gap. One and two might not have had a big gap between them but there was a gap between two and three. Where do you think USC currently stands in the Pac-12?

Roth: Well, that's an interesting question, because I still think Utah's the best team in the Pac-12. And I think that's why I hold ‘SC in such high regard. They beat them. Granted, statistically, it wasn't as close as the score, but they won the game. They held up where they needed to, and they converted when they needed to, and that's football. So to me, it's Utah and Oregon at the top of their respective divisions, but Oregon hasn't been tested by an offense yet. Auburn is not the offense they were in Week 1 because of Bo Nix being a true freshman. So I still think it's kind of unproven. There's not a lot of teams that have been tested, U-Dub has been tested, and they've won some of those and they've failed in some of those, most recently Stanford. Stanford's been tested and they failed. And then of course they had a dramatic bounce back with three freshman O-linemen and a backup quarterback against Washington. None of us ever saw, I don't want to speak for the world, but I definitely didn't see Stanford winning on both sides of the line of scrimmage with the amount of injuries that they had a week ago. I think right now, to just kind of take the Pac-12 for what it is, Utah and Oregon in each division, and then I look at U-Dub and ‘SC, and then you could kind of make arguments. Arizona State, Arizona’s in first place in the Pac-12 South. I wouldn’t be shocked if Colorado beat teams. Washington State, I think we’ll see a renewed team this week, I’m calling that one. Cal has proven to have the best defense, just based on what they’ve done to opponents.

Maya (3): Where do you think USC will finish then? With what you know about the Pac-12 -- I know it's still early because a lot of teams haven't played one another -- but where do you expect USC to finish?

Roth: That’s the crazy part about ‘SC: They control their own destiny, because of the tiebreaker (over Utah). I think ‘SC needs to become Washington fans, and they need U-Dub to beat Utah. I look at Utah schedule’s and, yeah, Arizona can get them, Oregon State can get hot this weekend. Things can happen in football, obviously. But I don't see Utah losing the rest of the way. So USC could be a team, they’re going to have to win out in the Pac-12 Conference to win the Pac-12 South. I don't think Utah’s going to lose. If that's the case, then ‘SC can’t lose. I think they have a chance to do that. It's such a unique deal right now. We don’t really know who they are consistently because we haven't seen anything consistent. Kedon Slovis hasn’t played in three weeks.

Maya: And he's only played two games, really.

Roth: Yeah. And has he ever taken three weeks off in his life? So what's that going to be like? In a game where you don't have any margin for error, which is on the road at South Bend. And then you start to talk about the confidence thing. And there are so many things that go into this game. So I still think that of all the teams in the Pac-12, I don't have a clear read on who ‘SC is, in terms of their ceiling. We know what their floor is. It's much more elevated than it was a year ago because I've seen them compete on the road when it's hard. We've seen them move the ball against everybody. We've seen them make plays down the field. We've seen them tackle, we've seen them cover, we've seen their corners evolve, but I can't tell yet. And I think if anybody says they can they're lying because we haven't seen anything that says, yep, I've watched them in -- I can't do a third down cut up on USC and say this is what they do on third-and-4 to 6, third-and-7 to 10. Because they don't have enough stats of the same quarterback. They're too hard to figure out right now based on that.

Maya (4): That's a good point. You are a noted film junkie. That’s one of my favorite things about you, that your opinions are coming from what you see, not just what you think. I want to know, when you have looked at USC, what are your biggest concerns for them right now in how they're playing? What areas on either side of the ball do you see where they really need to be better?

Roth: Quarterback, No. 1. Turnovers are drive killers, and sacks are drive killers. I don’t know what their numbers are in sacks.

Maya: They haven’t given up that many, actually. But they’ve had a couple that knocked out quarterbacks.

Roth: The turnovers that they've made are classic first-year quarterback turnovers -- miss a read. We talked about this last time, the phrase in the Air Raid is, your reads are sacred. It’s a fundamental principle in the Air Raid philosophy. You could talk to Jalen Hurts about it, you could talk to Anthony Gordon about it. That’s what they talk about, and they've missed their reads. That's a huge concern because they’re blowing teams out. So you can look at Matt Fink in the U-Dub game at times, throwing a bad pick. You can look at Slovis in the BYU game, all of his turnovers I thought were preventable. You’re gonna throw turnovers. There's a couple quarterbacks that still have yet to throw one in this conference, Jake Luton, Tyler Huntley, but they're gonna throw one. Everybody's gonna have their fair share. They miss a read, they miss a safety, or the ball bounces. But I think picks in the two recent losses, they’re all flashing in my head right now, all of them were poor reads.

Maya: Fink was just missing too. I don't even know where he was going on a couple of them.

Roth: I think that's a huge concern because this is a passing offense. This is an offense based on throwing the football down the field. That's why you felt so differently with JT just because he's had game experiences, he's watching weakside linebackers drop. How many times have you and I talked, that’s the one area that quarterbacks always throw picks on? I literally have a reel of young quarterbacks all throwing the same type of interception.

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Maya: That was Kedon’s first one against BYU. Didn’t see the weakside linebacker. Never saw him.

Roth: So that's the area of concern, especially the next two games, knowing what they are. I think defensively it's been corner. They've made plays. They've gotten beat at times. I've been really impressed with how they've competed, though. I gotta tell you...

Maya: You thought they’d be worse.

Roth: Well, I didn't know how they’d compete. You've got three corners fundamentally rotating. That’s pretty much what it is.

Maya: And they're all essentially rookies.

Roth: Yeah, and they're all five-star recruits. And they're all huge on social media, and they've all been in the public eye and they all easily can have a diva attitude. And I don't say diva attitude, like when they're talking to somebody. But I mean, diva attitude on the field, when somebody gets beat, do they loaf? I watch Chris Steele sprint from 15 yards behind the guy and still finish in the end zone. Those are the things that I'm watching, how are they competing? Because I think they are offended or embarrassed when they get beat, based on all the accolades.

I’ve talked to Greg Burns, he talks about how they work. So that to me has been, it's impressive. It’s still an area obviously of tremendous growth because it is so much different than where these kids were these young men were playing prior to major college football in the Pac- 12 against big-time receivers with quarterbacks like Ian Book who are timing-and-tempo clinics when you watch them on tape. Those are the two things for me. But O-line, D-line, I've been fine with. Obviously the defensive line, you and I both talked about it, thought they'd be really good and they are. If Utah wasn't as special as they were, we'd be talking about ‘SC having the best defensive front in the Pac-12.

Maya (5): Final question: What do you think is the formula for USC to upset Notre Dame?

Roth: Well, it's gonna be interesting. I believe they give up like 183 yards per game in the air and they’ve only allowed three touchdown passes, Notre Dame's defense. And that's really impressive. But they haven't faced Tyler Vaughns, Michael Pittman Jr., Amon-Ra St. Brown. They just haven't. Georgia doesn't have guys like that. Bowling Green surely doesn't have guys like that. And everybody else they played haven't had guys like that. So I don't look at that like we would in years past and say like, oh man, you're not going to be able to throw the ball. They should be able to throw the ball. This is what they do. So I can't wait to see that. For them to win, Yes, you have to run the ball. Yes, you want to control the clock. Yes, you can't miss tackles, Yes, you can't give up explosive plays. But ou got to create offense, and that's how they win this game like this. This is kind of like when you're a kid and you're playing one-on-one basketball, you're playing in like a sixth summer league game and you're just on fire. You're bombing and everything's going in. I feel that is like how this game is gonna go.

And then it will come down to a sack-caused fumble. Is it Drake Jackson getting to Ian book, or is it the other side, and Notre Dame's defensive front, which is pretty talented getting to the quarterback? that's what I think it'll come down to. Notre Dame’s talented. They're a talented defensive front, as they've always been. So ‘SC’s got to protect and get the ball out and let their dudes shine. Kedon Slovis, he needs to go out there nice and early in warmups, and he’s going to do it because he should, and look around and say, this is awesome. This is one of the most magical environments in all of sport, let alone college football. And take a look at the band and go see the mascot and feel the grass, I think it’s field turf now. But all the stuff that goes when you go to Notre Dame Stadium. Try to get the nostalgia out early, and then complete some quick balls early on and go to work. That to me is not only how they win this game, it's how they win every game. I don't see a game on the schedule like, OK, this week, they're just going to pound the rock.

Maya: Well, I actually think that this would be one, given the temperature, given their defensive backfield, given the noise and being on the road. I think they actually should set a tone where, not that they're necessarily run heavy, but that they commit to running the ball early in the game rather than after falling behind, like they did versus Washington.

Roth: That's fair. I think they're, when I watch them on tape — and I haven’t talked to the staff necessarily. I haven’t been over there for practice for a little while — I think it's fair to run the ball. It takes some pressure off and you can take the crowd out of the game. You'd love to get a couple chunk runs, and I think they'll do it. But I think it'll be simple box count reads. That's kind of what the system is to a large degree. Notre Dame will probably do what a lot of teams have done, which is play a light box and force ‘SC to run the football. And they should have the opportunity to do that. And when they have opportunities to take shots, they’re going to do that too. But overall, for ‘SC to win, I think this offense is at its best when not only does it take what the defense gives you but it dictates terms. And with the playmakers they have, they can do that. If you want to bracket Michael Pittman again, no problem. Formationally, you have to align so Amon-Ra St. Brown is on the same side, and its just dramatically challenging to defend. Whatever it is, to me, it’ll be fun to see how ‘SC answers in that regard and utilizes their playmakers on a huge stage. I think their playmakers will exude confidence in their young quarterback in a road game, in this amazing environment.

Don’t forget, Matt Barkley goes into South Bend in 2009 as a true freshman and beats them. And these kids are at their best when their backs are against the wall sometimes. And this is one of those games that feel that way, even though it has no impact, win or lose on the Pac-12, and the one thing they can control now with two losses. With that being said, I could see them really cutting it loose in this game. I really could see them with a win. I wouldn't be surprised if their upperclassmen playmakers made enough plays for them to get one.Notre Dame, they're good, they’re talented, they’re one of the top teams in the country. But I don't look at them the same way that I look at…

Maya: They’re like Notre Dame last year.

Roth: Yeah.

Roth is a Pac-12 Networks college football analyst, award-winning filmmaker, scholar, New York Times best-selling author, coach, motivational speaker and world-traveler. Be sure to check out all his latest work.

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