USC Fans Won't Like Trojans' Bowl Game Projection Before the Season

The USC Trojans not projected to play in College Football Playoff yet again under coach Lincoln Riley.

Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley stands on the sidelines during the first quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

As Lincoln Riley’s fifth year as the coach of USC nears, the big questions surrounding the Trojans is whether they can make a College Football Playoff run.

With their week 0 opener against San Jose State less than a week away, ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach listed their predictions for bowl season matchups beginning from the Cricket Celebration Bowl at Mercedez-Benz Stadium on Dec. 12 until the CFP National Championship game in Las Vegas on Jan. 25.

USC’s Bowl Season Prediction

Dec 30, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Southern California Trojans Spirit of Troy marching band drum major Zachary Eggleton stands on the Valero Alamo Bowl logo at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Bonagura and Schlabach both predicted the Trojans to finish the year playing at the Valero Alamo Bowl against Houston on Dec. 29.

If that turns out to be the case, it would be the second consecutive time that the Trojans play in the Alamodome. In last season’s conclusion, the Trojans faced off against TCU in San Antonio losing to the Horned Frogs 30-27 in overtime.

Dec 30, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; TCU Horned Frogs safety Jamel Johnson (2) celebrates after intercepting a pass in the first half against the Southern California Trojans during the Alamo Bowl at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

USC finished the 2025 season with a 9-4 overall record.

Given the Trojans gauntlet of a schedule, most are predicting USC to finish with just meet their projected 8.5 wins this year.

Preseason Top 25 Opponents in USC’s Gauntlet Schedule

Jul 28, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; USC Football head coach Lincoln Riley speaks during Media Days at Hilton Chicago. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

“The only two places that I’ve been a head coach at were blue blood schools (Oklahoma and USC) that had the highest of expectations,” Riley said during Big Ten Media Day. “Honestly, I’ve never known anything different, every year I expect us to win and expect us to win championships.”

When the Preseason AP Poll released on Aug. 17, the Trojans had five ranked Big Ten opponents on its schedule.

Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq hurdles over USC cornerback DeCarlos Nicholson as the Oregon Ducks host the USC Trojans on Nov. 22, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Among them are No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Oregon, both which will be played in the Coliseum. The Ducks defeated the Trojans in Euguene last year 42-27 and have defeated the Trojans in their previous four meetings. The last time USC beat Oregon was in 2016.

Ohio State, meanwhile, will face off against USC in the Coliseum for the first time since 2008. They boasted the top ranked defense last year under defensive coordinator Matt Patricia

No. 17 Washington comes into town on Oct. 3, and they too have had a winning streak against the Trojans. The Huskies are on a three-game winning streak against USC, including a 94 total point shootout in 2023 where the Trojans fell short 52-42.

Road games were a havoc for Riley and his team last season, dropping all three regular season games on the road.

This year they’ll travel to Happy Valley to play Penn State who is led by first year coach Matt Campbell. It has been speculated that this will likely be the Nittany Lions’ annual White Out game albeit not official yet.

The Trojans will also face off against No. 6 Indiana, the defending national champions in Bloomington. It will be Trojans’ first return to Memorial Stadium since 1981 and currently have a 4-0 record when facing the Hoosiers.

Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts after a game against the Wisconsin Badgers at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Riley and his staff have a tough year ahead and if they fail to make the playoffs at the end of the regular season, questions will begin to rise on his future with the Trojans.

With the Trojans’ 2026 schedule being one of the toughest in the country, the odds are stacked against USC. If they end the season with at least three loses, it should come as no surprise that Bonagura and Schlabach could be possibly correct in their predictions and the Trojans end their year at the Alamodome.

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