USC Trojans' College Football Playoff Hopes May Rest On These Few Teams

With the USC Trojans still looking for their first College Football Playoff appearance.

Dec 30, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches in the first half against the TCU Horned Frogs during the Alamo Bowl at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

As coach Lincoln Riley enters his fifth season leading the USC Trojans, the program is still in pursuit of its first College Football Playoff appearance. Unfortunately for Riley, that path doesn't get any easier with the schedule USC faces this upcoming season.

The Trojans have a loaded conference schedule that features marquee Big Ten matchups against the last two national champions in the Indiana Hoosiers and the Ohio State Buckeyes, along with a perennial contender in the Oregon Ducks. With that, USC enters the season needing a bit more than just internal improvement. For Riley and the Trojans to break through, they may need the top of the conference to crack.

Josh Pate Includes USC in Big Ten Chaos Scenario

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, left, and USC head coach Lincoln Riley shake hands before the game as the Oregon Ducks host the USC Trojans on Nov. 22, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

For the Trojans to see a "crack" amongst the powerhouses of the conference, it's going to require a lot of "ifs" to fall in their favor. College football analyst Josh Pate recently outlined a scenario of the biggest "if," where these elite programs don't quite live up to expectations. Opening the door for USC make their move.

“The top of the Big Ten is just not what we think it is,” Pate said on the Josh Pate College Football Show. “Let’s say that plays out… no one’s got to fall off a cliff, but let’s just say Ohio State doesn’t see quarterback play elevate… Oregon’s offensive line… and Indiana’s turnover issue continues to plague (quarterback) Josh Hoover.”

“If Ohio State and Oregon and Indiana are down a little bit, and that coincides with USC peaking at the right time, maybe, just maybe, we’re hearing a different kind of fight song in Indianapolis in early December,” Pate continued.

Although this scenario is predicated on some things breaking in USC's favor that they can't control, it still presents a window of opportunity. The Big Ten has won three straight national titles, establishing itself as the sport’s most powerful conference. Meaning for the Trojans to breakthrough, any window they see, they have to take advantage of. Even under chaotic circumstances.

USC Has Built a Roster to Capitalize

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts during the game against the Missouri State Bears at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

If that opportunity presents itself, USC may finally have the infrastructure to take advantage. Starting with their returning talent on offense. After commanding one of the most prolific offenses in the country last season (No. 9 in the country), the Trojans get quarterback Jayden Maiava back after a career-season throwing for 3,711 yards and 24 touchdowns.

More importantly, USC brings back all five starting offensive linemen. A rare level of continuity that should stabilize both the passing game and a rushing attack that should get Waymond Jordan back from injury and a full season of King Miller after a breakout freshman campaign.

The bigger question, as always under Riley, is defense. USC addressed that directly by hiring former TCU head coach Gary Patterson as defensive coordinator, replacing D’Anton Lynn who left to join the Penn State Nittany Lions' staff. Patterson brings a proven track record of building nationally renowned defenses and over two decades of collegiate success. Calling Patterson out of retirement is a leap of faith that old school tactics can prepare this defense for a grueling and physical Big Ten schedule.

Oct 23, 2021; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson reacts during the first half against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Add in the nation's No.1 ranked recruiting class headlined by the five-star defensive lineman duo of defensive edge Luke Wafle and Jamieon Winfield to inject some much needed talent and depth into a roster that already had offensive firepower. Now it all becomes about alignment.

USC has done everything this offseason to build a roster capable of competing in the Big Ten. With an improved defense, a budding offense and young playmakers from the incoming freshman class, the Trojans are well positioned to take advantage of any window that becomes available.

At this point, it's not just that they should be able to compete with this roster. It's that they have to compete with this roster. Because if the Trojans still can't break through even with a strong offseason and a perfect storm of chaos at the top, USC will have to question whether they will even be able to snap their playoff drought with Lincoln Riley at the helm.

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